The bomb attack on a hotel in Northern Ireland may not prove fatal to the peace process but should be taken as a warning that it is still at risk, according to analysts.

Jonathan Moore, principle lecturer in Irish Studies at the University of North London said it would take more than a single bomb to trigger the collapse of the process.

He said the attack's likely perpetrators, the Continuity IRA, were probably not capable of the sustained campaign required to completely disrupt the political situation in Northern Ireland.

However, he suggested the attack had the potential to begin the destabilising process that could lead to the return to an era of commonplace violence within the province.

He said: "All the evidence we have is that the IRA is not going to decommission by next Friday, the Executive is going to collapse and Sinn Fein are going to be left out on a limb.

"The million dollar question following a bomb like this is, will a pattern develop here - and there are a lot of reasons it won't develop, because the Continuity IRA have been trying to do this for a few years.

"I don't think this will signal a return by the Provisionals in the short-to-medium term but, of course, once bombs start going off the whole of the political situation becomes destabilised.

Violence and bombing

"But there will be reprisals and once we get used to violence and bombing again, then who knows what might happen.

"At this stage I think one has to be cautious about being too concerned about the Continuity IRA but nonetheless, as Gerry Adams said, the history of Ireland suggests where there is a political vacuum, the men of violence will move into that.

"And as long as we do not have political stability in Northern Ireland, then on both sides of the divide there will undoubtedly be those who wish to push their agenda forward with the use of the bomb and the bullet."

BBC Ireland correspondent Denis Murray says one of the likely problems caused by the bomb will be a reinforcement of Unionist perceptions of the IRA as abject enemies of the peace process.

"I think what is disturbing Unionists is that things like the seizure of weaponry in County Tipperary in the Republic a few weeks ago - Semtex was found as part of that seizure.

"Unionists believe that only the IRA holds on to Semtex, therefore these dissident groups are able to get their hands on IRA weaponry and I think, over the next couple of days, Unionist spokesmen will be saying this just underlines the need for decommissioning.

"I believe Sinn Fein will say that these people are not reflective of the peace process, these are people who are quite deliberately trying to wreck the peace process.

"Sinn Fein will say 'our motives are very decent and if you leave us to get on with decommissioning, then it will happen. But if you let things lie, this interference with the process... then you're falling for what they are trying to achieve.'"

Long-term collapse

Denis Murray re-iterated the belief that the latest attack, while not a major threat to overall peace had the potential to cause its long-term collapse.

He added: "Both the Irish police and the RUC have warned that the violence isn't over, that these small groups do still present a threat.

"They could destabilise the peace process. Right at the moment I don't think they can, but they could ultimately."