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Thursday, January 22, 1998 Published at 10:01 GMT World: Analysis US/Mid-East: Now It's Arafat's Turn
The Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat is holding talks at the White House today with President Clinton. This follows Mr Clinton's talks on Tuesday with the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, which failed to break the current deadlock in the Arab-Israeli peace process. Here to look at the prospects for today's meeting is the BBC's Middle East analyst, Roger Hardy.
Mr Arafat is in pessimistic mood. After almost a year of deadlock in the peace process, he warned a few days ago of the danger of a new intifada -- the Palestinian uprising which erupted in the Israeli-occupied territories in the late 1980s. To prevent this happening, he badly wants to see concerted American pressure on the man he holds responsible for the crisis -- Binyamin Netanyahu.
After long hours of talks in Washington on Tuesday -- including two meetings between Mr Netanyahu and President Clinton -- it's hard to see much sign of progress. The Americans are reported to have suggested a phased Israeli withdrawal from a further fifteen per cent of the West Bank. In return, they want specific undertakings from Mr Arafat on security co-operation with Israel -- in particular, measures to curb the militant Islamic group Hamas. It looks as if Mr Netanyahu is not ready to accept the American plan -- either out of ideological conviction, or from fear that if he did so, his right-wing coalition government would collapse.
Having been business-like -- almost curt -- with Mr Netanyahu, the Americans will be at pains to treat Mr Arafat in exactly the same way. For his part, he's shown he's ready to offer the Israelis security co-operation -- but he wants precise assurances of what he'll get in return. To a Palestinian leader whose people have grown disillusioned with the peace process, a phased Israeli withdrawal from fifteen per cent of the West Bank -- if that is indeed the American proposal -- is scarcely an attractive offer. Mr Arafat's fear is that, if he accepted it, he'd be putting himself in a weak position ahead of crucialnegotiations on a final peace settlement with the Israelis -- negotiations both Israel and the US would like to see start as soon as possible.
Much hangs on the outcome of this week's talks in Washington. There are signs that both Israeli and Palestinian security officials have made contingency plans for dealing with a fresh outbreak of violence. This may be more than just routine. The long deadlock in the peace process has created a dangerous build-up of frustration. Mr Arafat's warning of a new intifada could prove well-founded. But he will not have forgotten that the last uprising was a spontaneous outburst of anger which startled the Palestinian leadership as muchas it did the Israelis.
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