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Wednesday, January 14, 1998 Published at 16:59 GMT



World: Analysis

Russia and Chechnya: a new start ?
image: [ Is the Russian President Boris Yeltsin nearing a solution to his problems with Chechnya ]
Is the Russian President Boris Yeltsin nearing a solution to his problems with Chechnya

Russia has sent a top-level delegation to Grozny, the capital of the breakaway republic of Chechnya. The delegation has a specific agenda, to discuss economic help for small business and agriculture in Chechnya. This could mark a breakthrough for the pragmatic wing of the Russian government, which has been battling to make progress over Russia's most intractable problem. And it comes as a new tough government takes office in the republic. Tom de Waal looks at the latest developments:

Russia has sent a top-level delegation to Grozny, the capital of the breakaway republic of Chechnya. Could this mark a breakthrough for the pragmatic wing of the Russian government, which has been battling to make progress over Russia's most intractable problem. This is the most substantial Russian delegation to visit Chechnya for some time and it could herald a new shift in policy towards the secessionist republic.

The team is led by the most senior Russian official dealing with Chechnya, Ivan Rybkin, and includes two deputy prime ministers Oleg Sysuyev and Viktor Khlystun, who coordinate economic policy.

Mr Khlystun has been charged with helping finance the spring sowing campaign in Chechnya, while Irina Khakamada, head of the state committee on small businesses, will discuss small business projects with the Chechens.

Hawks and doves

Last week Mr Rybkin complained that not enough was being done to implement the economic agreements signed last May between Moscow and Grozny. He seems to have been spurred to act now by the threat issued by the Interior Minister, Anatoly Kulikov, to launch 'preventative strikes' against Chechen bases, which he accused of carrying out armed raids across the border.

This belligerent approach drew an angry response from those in the Russian government who are in favour of a constructive dialogue with the Chechens, such as Mr Rybkin. They believe that the best method of bringing Chechnya back into the Russian Federation is to make it more stable and more economically integrated with Russia. The first fruit of that policy came in October when oil started flowing through the Chechen segment of the pipeline running from Baku to Novorossiisk.

But time is slowly running out for hopes of a comprehensive settlement between Moscow and Chechnya. Although the two sides now have regular and relatively cordial contacts, the main reason for the war - Chechnya's unilateral declaration of independence - remains unresolved, while Chechnya itself is in chaos, plagued by a wave of violent crime and kidnapping.

Enemies into allies?

The crime wave and desperate economic situation has led President Aslan Maskhadov to appoint a new tough government, headed by Shamil Basayev, the most famous - and feared - Chechen field commander. But Mr Basayev's appointment poses problems for Moscow.

He is still officially wanted for leading the bloody raid on the southern Russian town of Budyonnovsk in 1995 and is an uncompromising proponent of full independence for Chechnya. Dealing with Mr Basayev without being seen to make concessions to a supposed 'terrorist' will be a very stern test for Mr Rybkin's diplomatic skills.
 





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