Many observers saw the outcome of last November's stand-off between Iraq and the UN as unsatisfactory, fearing further defiance from Saddam Hussein. Then as now, the issue was the composition of the UN weapons inspection teams. Following Iraq's expulsion of the American inspectors, there was a big build-up of US military forces in the Gulf. But the crisis was eventually defused with Russian help.

Saddam seems to have concluded that the US and its allies had little appetite for the use of force. He also saw he could exploit the divisions within the UN Security Council and the sympathy Iraq enjoys in the Third World, where many feel Iraq has been punished enough for its invasion of Kuwait in 1990. It was that action which led the UN to impose tough sanctions which have crippled the Iraqi economy. Only when the UN certifies that Iraq has destroyed its weapons of mass destruction, and no longer has the means to make them in the future, will it be allowed to resume the oil exports on which its economy depends.

As in the past, it's not clear how far Saddam Hussein is prepared to go on this occasion. The UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, did urge the Iraqi leadership not to take any precipitate action, but to wait for the head of the weapons inspection programme -- the plain-speaking Australian, Richard Butler -- who has now arrived back in Baghdad. But the Iraqis did not heed this advice. To judge from his past behaviour, Saddam will push the crisis as far as he can, in order to test the resolve of the Security Council -- and to see how much he can get.