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Monday, January 5, 1998 Published at 18:33 GMT



World: Analysis

Israeli government in crisis
image: [ BBC analyst Charles Haviland ]
BBC analyst Charles Haviland

In Israel, the coalition government of the right-wing Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, now has only a wafer-thin majority after the resignation on Sunday of the Foreign Minister, David Levy. Mr Levy accused the Prime Minister of abandoning his commitment to the Middle East peace process, as well as to Israel's citizens on matters of welfare. Despite Mr Levy's resignation, the government has managed to get parliament to approve a controversial austerity budget. However, there is speculation that the country may now face early elections. Charles Haviland reports.

It was at a news conference on Sunday that David Levy finally announced his intention to quit the fractious coalition government that's ruled Israel for the past nineteen months. The trigger was the government's new budget which, said Mr Levy, didn't provide enough money for the poor. But he was also protesting at the failure of his cabinet colleagues to advance the process of peace with the Palestinians.

"One cannot force a policy which the majority of the government does not want," he said. "There is only one conclusion: to resign from the government. Today, after this news conference, I intend to send a letter of resignation to the Prime Minister. With all due respect and decorum, I am no longer a member of this government."

In the vote on the budget on Monday, Mr Levy duly voted against the government. His resignation takes away from the cabinet a political veteran and a man usually regarded as a relative "dove" in a cabinet of "hawks" - one who has backed US calls for a substantial withdrawal of Israeli troops from the occupied West Bank later this year. But more generally it will weaken the authority of an already shaky coalition of right-wing and religious parties - and other ministers could go Mr Levy's way, says political commentator David Landau of Ha-Aretz newspaper.

"There are a large number of ministers round that cabinet table who have been saying privately for months, as indeed has David Levy, that they no longer have confidence in Mr Netanyahu as Prime Minister. And now Mr Levy has gone public with that, that could have a domino effect. We could see other ministers coming out of the closet and saying 'yes, we too do not think that Mr Netanyahu should lead our party, our coalition grouping, into a new election'."

Without Mr Levy and his five-member Gesher faction the government will have a majority of just one seat. And the fact that it has survived this first test - seeing through the controversial budget for 1998 does not mean it will survive tests to come. Mr Netanyahu is now likely to be more dependent than ever on hardline politicians who reject outright not only the notion of land-for-peace, but also any concessions to the Palestinians. Instead, they support the stepping up of Jewish settlements in the occupied areas. That can't be an advantage to him at this critical moment in the peace process.

President Clinton has invited both Mr Netanyahu and the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat, for separate talks later this month, and he has put pressure on the Israeli leader to present him with a concrete plan for troop withdrawals.

Now that Mr Netanyahu's majority is so slim, the opposition, led by Ehud Bara, thinks his government cannot last long: "It is clear that this government ended its role and its public agenda. It might muddle through for some time, a few weeks or at the most a few months, but it will end in a new election."

Speaking for the government after the budget vote Moshe Vogel said that the government's slim majority would simply increase discipline within the coalition. He did not fear for the government's future: "If you look at past experiences governments in Israel functioned successfully in the past, and I think that it will be able to do so in the future. But of course I would agree that there will be an effort in the coming weeks and months to broaden the coalition."

Nevertheless, if not only the opposition, but other members of Mr Netanyahu's government who are uneasy about his leadership all band together, they could remove the Prime Minister without triggering new elections. Under a new law, elections for Prime Minister but not for parliament can be held if 80 legislators vote no confidence in the country's leader.
 





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