Israel's foreign minister, David Levy, has threatened to resign unless the government agrees to withdraw from at least ten per cent of the West Bank -- and to change its controversial budget for 1998. So can Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu hold his fragile coalition government together on these two highly sensitive issues? Here's our Middle East analyst, Roger Hardy.

Two deadlines now hang over Mr Netanyahu's head. By the middle of January his government must approve a set of peace proposals that the prime minister can take with him to Washington for an important meeting with President Clinton. But before that, he has another difficult hurdle to cross. By the end of of the year -- in other words, by Wednesday of next week -- he must push a controversial austerity budget through parliament.

Both issues are already straining the unity of Mr Netanyahu's fragile and fractious coalition. The foreign minister, David Levy, says he'll resign if the government fails to live up to its commitments either on the peace process or on social justice. He wants the government to commit itself to a further withdrawal from the West Bank of ten or eleven per cent -- and to scrap some of the more painful elements of the proposed budget for 1998. In its present form the budget calls for cuts of 600 million dollars in government spending, and for reforms in the national health system. If the bill goes through, Mr Netanyahu could lose his health minister, Yehoshu Matza, who opposes the reforms. But if the budget cuts are not made, he could lose his finance minister, Yaacov Neeman -- as well as some of his own credibility as a free-market reformer.

If the prime minister can get the budget passed and at the same time keep his coalition intact, he'll then have to turn to the even more sensitive issue of peace. Mr Netanyahu badly needs to repair his relations with the Clinton administration, which have been strained as a result of the deadlock in the peace process for most of 1997. That means he must come up with what Washington calls a "serious and credible" proposal for a further West Bank withdrawal. The idea is that this would open the door to accelerated talks on a final Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement. Two Israeli ministers have drawn up maps of what a future West Bank might look like -- but even the more generous of the two is totally unacceptable to the Palestinians. A senior American envoy, Dennis Ross, is due to visit the region in early January in an effort to bridge the enormous gap between the two sides.
 

Back to top | BBC News Home | BBC Homepage	©