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Monday, December 22, 1997 Published at 14:56 GMT



World: Analysis

Yeltsin recovers, but has Russia's political system caught his cold?
image: [ Boris Yeltsin meeting Viktor Chernomyrdin at his sanatorium on Monday ]
Boris Yeltsin meeting Viktor Chernomyrdin at his sanatorium on Monday

The Russian President, Boris Yeltsin, is returing to the Kremlin, after spending nearly two weeks in a sanatorium outside Moscow. Mr Yeltsin's illness has caused more speculation about not only his health, but the health of Russia's political system. The BBC's Russian Affairs Analyst, Stephen Dalziel, considers to what extent Russian politics depends on the man at the top.

Despite the progress which has been made towards creating a democratic political system in Russia, much still depends on the leader.

This is because many old Soviet practices are still felt. The Soviet system encouraged subordinates not to take decisions, especially if the top man was away only temporarily. That way, there was no danger that the subordinate would make a mistake for which he would then be punished.

The continued existence of this practice was very evident when Mr Yeltsin was off work due to his heart operation and double pneumonia, at the end of 1996 and the start of 1997. From the time of his re-election as President until he fully resumed his duties in March, Russia was like a rudderless ship. Although the Prime Minister, Viktor Chernomyrdin, was nominally in control of the affairs of state, Mr Chernomyrdin did not take any radical policy decisions.

For eight months, Russian politics stagnated. It is difficult to say whether the much-vaunted political "stability" which Mr Yeltsin has spoken of in recent months really is stability, or whether it reflects the stagnation of that period.


[ image: Boris Yeltsin says he's ready for work]
Boris Yeltsin says he's ready for work
On the positive side, what has been evident both from that eight-month period and from the current concern over Mr Yeltsin's health, is that the machinery of the state has worked as it should according to the constitution. The temporary handover of power to the Prime Minister went smoothly. And whilst at the Barvikha sanatorium this time, Mr Yeltsin has been in regular contact with Mr Chernomyrdin, including a meeting with him on Monday morning.

If Mr Yeltsin's current absence from the Kremlin is as short as he is now suggesting, then no harm will have been done to the political process. But if it proves to be another long period, then a great deal of damage could be done.

The lack of decision-making would lead to another period of stagnation; and continually talking up the President's health, only for it to be shown that his condition was worse than had been admitted, would strengthen the people's belief that, despite the new freedoms, the authorities will still tell them only what they want them to know.
 





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