It was no surprise that the opposition LAMMP party chose Vice President Joseph Estrada as its candidate for the presidential election next May. The opinion polls have persistently shown that Mr Estrada will be the man that all the others will have to beat.

Mr Estrada made his reputation as a film actor, playing the tough hero with a soft heart who always saved the underdog by shooting dead all the bad guys. As Vice President he added to his popularity by acting out this kind of role in real life as head of a special crime-fighting body, although he didn't do any shooting himself.

Mr Estrada's critics sneer at the part that women and alcohol have played in his private life, although he himself says his days of fast living are over. But most of all, with the Philippines bidding to become another of East Asia's tiger economies, his critics say he doesn't know the first thing about economics.

In spite of Mr Estrada's alleged shortcomings, the ruling Lakas party will have an uphill struggle to beat him. The Lakas candidate is the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Jose de Venecia.

Mr de Venecia says he would continue with the economic policies which under President Fidel Ramos have dispelled the Philippines' reputation as the economic sick man of Asia. But Mr de Venecia is a political power broker who according to the opinion polls has little popular appeal.