Manchester United fans are in confident mood this Christmas. Alex Ferguson's mighty reds go into the festive season odds-on favourites for their fifth title in six seasons and performing well at home and in Europe. The 1-0 victory over Newcastle at St James' Park will have provided the icing for their Christmas cake.

As they head into 1998 they look almost unbeatable and Alex Ferguson still has the resources on and off the field to have international stars keeping his bench warm.

But is it all over? Has the fat lady sung? Should United be over the moon at the end of the day? Possibly not...

Contrary to pub logic, Christmas leaders don't always end up league champions. It falls to statistics to offer chasing teams a few crumbs of encouragement.

Turn your thoughts away from Manchester United's winning ways - and back to the upcoming festive season, in particular the humble Christmas cracker.

Pulling a cracker makes a loud bang, provides you with a party hat, a joke and a toy. Usually, the toy does not deliver as much fun as the cracker seemed to promise. Were hopes to high? Expectations raised?

Manchester United after winning the 1992/3 league championship

Where does all this festive pondering lead? It may be a tenuous analogy, but Manchester United fans who remember the 1985-6 football season might see the connection. That season they were four points clear and looking good for the rest of the season.

The newspapers had declared them certain champions, the holy grail was surely on its way back to Old Trafford after a near 20-year absence? But no. They finished up fourth in the league - high hopes dashed and time was short for Big Ron.

That wasn't the first time either. In 1971 United were, again, four points clear on Christmas Day - yet they finished the season in eighth place.

At Christmas parties across the country in the coming week football fans will expound the theory that the Christmas leaders nearly always end up winning the league championship.

In fact over the last 25 years only 44% of Christmas league leaders have gone on to win the title. 11 teams who were Christmas leaders went on to win, and 14 felt like turkeys by May.

In the Scottish league the percentage is much higher at 64%. Glasgow Rangers have been Christmas and league champions in the same year eight times, with Celtic having done it six times.

Kevin Keegan in sombre mood

Excluding this year, Manchester United have led at Christmas four times in the last quarter of a century. On only one of those occasions have they gone on to win the league. However at three other times in that period they have come from behind to take the title.

The most dramatic case in recent years involved Kevin Keegan's Newcastle. Having been a massive 10 points ahead on Christmas Day, Newcastle lost game after game late in the season. Managers Kevin Keegan and Alex Ferguson were embroiled in the fierce competition when, in a passionate television interview, a tearful Keegan said, "If we can beat them I'm going to love that".

It was not to be. Second placed Manchester United snatched the title for the third time in four years. Never mind Kev.

Remarkable recovery

Celtic - recovery record

Celtic have a record of recovering after the Christmas period. In both 1979 and 1981 they came from fifth place at Christmas to finish top of the Scottish League. In each case they were trailing the Christmas leaders, Dundee United and Heart of Midlothian respectively, by four points.

Many pundits have written off Liverpool's hopes of the title this season - but the statistics suggest they may have spoken too soon. At Christmas in 1981 Liverpool found themselves stuck down the table, a dismal 12th. Swansea were one point clear at the top.

By the end of the season Liverpool had made a great recovery and they took the honours for what was the first of three consecutive championship titles.

Statistics

These statistics, of course, will have no bearing on this year's championship, but if there is one thing they suggest it is that no team ever knows what the new year may hold. On the other hand, Prime Minister Disraeli may have supported a football team wallowing at the bottom of the League when he wrote "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." Barnsley fans will certainly hope so.

With thanks to Ray Spiller of the Association of Football Statisticians for compiling the figures.
 

Back to top | BBC News Home | BBC Homepage	©