Second party

A book called the Strange Death of Liberal England used to be required reading for British history and politics students. Could there now be a sequel - the equally Strange Rise of Lib Dem Britain?

Only Tony Blair's huge majority prevents us seeing what a large bloc the Lib Dems have become in parliament. Buoyed up through by-election successes they have yet to repeat the hubris of a previous leader who told them they should "go back to their constituencies and prepare for government."

But is it realistic to suggest that within a year or so the Lib Dems could become - perhaps - Her Majesty's official Opposition? Ben Geoghegan tried to figure out whether the future is looking a bit yellow.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
Looking back at their recent by-election successes, the Liberal Democrats have every reason to start singing. A year ago it was Brent East, last month, Leicester South. In the autumn, it could be Hartlepool. Lib Dems say they are on the march. They're so confident, party managers have been predicting they could become the first non-Labour government of the decade.

ED DAVEY MP
LIBERAL DEMOCRAT:
In previous elections, people have not considered the Liberal Democrats as main challengers and perhaps we've lacked the credibility of challenging for power. That's different now. I think people can see a Liberal Democrat government, can conceive of what it would be like. That gets us over the credibility threshold we have had in the past. So we can be winning in many areas where previously it was unthinkable.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
On several measures the Liberal Democrats prospects are looking rosy. They have more seats in Parliament now than at any time since the Second World War. Their opinion poll ratings have improved consistently over the last five years. In the local elections this year they gained 137 councillors and their projected share of the vote was 29%, just below their best, but higher than Labour's.

PROFESSOR ANTHONY KING
UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX:
The great thing the Liberal Democrats have done is to consolidate. They used to get a certain share of the vote, but it was spread all over the country, they got very few seats in the House of Commons. But they're now managing to build up local strength, local organisation, a tradition of voting Lib Dem locally, so that whereas they once had, well, a number of MPs you could get into a London taxi, they now have famously over 50. They're probably going to stay at that level, or even improve.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
This week, Charles Kennedy has been sounding distinctly Churchillian, promising to fight the next election on all fronts, on the Conservative beaches in the south and on Labour's cities in the north. The by-election showed the Liberal Democrats can overturn big Labour majorities. But the truth is their best chances are in the 60 or so seats where they are running second to the Tories. This town could come to symbolise the rising fortunes of the Liberal Democrats. This is Folkestone where the sitting MP is none other than the Tory party leader, Michael Howard. His majority here is just under 6,000. The Lib Dems hope by targeting the seats of the Tory front bench they can effectively decapitate their opponents before eventually taking over as the second party of British politics. This is a seat where the Lib Dems think they can win a clear knock-out. In the district council elections last year they got 50% of the vote. However, they've been heavily criticised for cutting back some essential local services, like the public toilets. Among these top league bowlers, the Lib Dems have yet to make their mark.

BOB TAYLOR:
I'll be voting Tory, because I think that the liberals have made a mess up of this area, I think the Tories, Michael Howard is a good leader, and I think that the Tories will - if they could get some support, would make a fine job.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
Who would you be supporting in the next election ?

JOHN SCANLON:
The Conservatives, Michael Howard.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
Why's that?

JOHN SCANLON:
Because I think he's a future Prime Minister, and he's got the determination to put things right in this country.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
Never mind forming a Government, even if they just wanted to take over from the Tories as the second party the Liberal Democrats would need to make startling progress. At the last election Labour won 413 seats in Westminster. The Tories took 166, and the Lib Dems, 52. Assuming Labour's vote stayed the same; Liberals would need to win 5 seats from the Tories with a swing of around 10% in order to become the second party.

CHARLES MOORE
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH:
There are more and more people in modern society who act more or less on their own, in quite an independent sort of way, whether they're running a small business, whether they're a consultant, often working on the internet, often women. And these people, on the whole, do not have strong political loyalties. Traditionally the Tories' admiration for freedom would grab such people. It still has a good chance of doing so. But that's where the battle is. And the Liberal Democrats could get in with such people, and make them feel that they understand such people better than the Tories.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
To become the main opposition, the Liberals would have to obliterate the Tories, even in their heartlands; in places like Poole, Worthing East, and Aylesbury. Or they could take seats from both Labour and the Tories. But that would mean winning in Labour strong holds, like Hornsey in Wood Green or in Islington South. With the election around the corner, there are signs of some changes in the party's political branding. With a return to early, liberal free-market values. A tough message on crime, and less enthusiasm for Europe. Some of this new liberalism will be set out in the soon to be published Orange Book, a series of political essays helping to show there is real depth to Lib Dem philosophy and they are grown up as a party.

ED DAVEY MP:
The Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Party before them have always been in favour of free markets and competition. We've always been in favour of devolving power, of giving the individuals more freedom. I think what we are seeing now is the 21st century version of what's gone before.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
Some say the party is right to try and resolve what has been a damaging dichotomy between classical liberalism and the more Stateist tendencies of many Lib Dem members. No doubt the policy rethink will be seized upon by their opponents.

DAVID CAMERON MP
CONSERVATIVE:
I think there is a split emerging, if you sit on committees with Liberal Democrats as I do, sometimes you will sit on one who is almost left of old Labour very much pressing a left-wing line, and then you will go to another committee on another bill, and you will be sitting with a Liberal Democrat taking a completely different view. And they do this throughout their politics. When they campaign in the cities they take one view, when they campaign out in the countryside they take a completely different view In the Leicester South by-election they took it to the nth degree where they had a candidate who called himself by a different name in different parts of the constituency. I think in terms of becoming a real party that can challenge, it's too hopelessly split and fractious to ever mount a serious challenge as a serious party.

DAVID STEEL (1981)
I have the good fortune to be the first Liberal leader for over half a century who is able to say to you at the end of our annual Assembly, go back to your constituencies and prepare for government!

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
In 1981, David Steel told his party they were ready for electoral break-through. He said they had discarded their old role as the eternal opposition and now it was time to face up to the realities of power. However in the general election two years later, they won just 23 seats. The party's claims to be able to break the mould of British politics have been ridiculed ever since.

PROFESSOR ANTHONY KING:
There's no absolute limit to what the Lib Dems can achieve. Of course there isn't. They could form a government in 10 or 20 or 30 years. Their difficulty at the moment is in the large majority of the constituencies in the country, certainly in the large majority of the marginal seats, they are the third party, or sometimes even the fourth or fifth party. Their strength is much more concentrated than it was a generation ago, but it still isn't concentrated enough to enable them to turn a large share of the vote into a very large number of seats.

BEN GEOGHEGAN:
The Lib Dems have shown they can take on the Tories and Labour and win. But actually forming the next government? That idea still seems like a mid-summer day dream.

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This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.