US nervous about Chavez

By Jill McGivering
BBC state department correspondent

Many in the United States will be watching keenly as voters in Venezuela cast their ballots in Sunday's referendum which decides whether or not Hugo Chavez will continue as president.

Baseball fan Chavez often rails against US imperialism

They may have mixed feelings.

President Chavez's relationship with the US has been notoriously discordant but turmoil in Venezuela could also cause unwelcome disruption in oil supplies.

The Bush administration and the Venezuelan leader have struggled to co-exist.

The relationship has long been dogged by allegations of American interference in Venezuelan politics and complaints about US funding for opposition figures.

Those suspicions seemed confirmed when the US initially failed to condemn the short-lived military coup against President Chavez in 2002.

Mr Chavez at the time even accused the US of being instrumental in the coup, although Washington always denied it.

Change v stability

So as the Venezuelan leader faces a moment of political reckoning, some say Washington is licking its lips.

The Bush administration is inherently opposed to President Chavez on both ideological and practical grounds, Mark Weisbrot of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research believes.

Rising oil prices give oil-rich Venezuela added significance

"They don't like him because he's a populist, because he's also against some of the things they want for Latin America, like the Free Trade Area of the Americas, because of the oil price question, and because of his relationship with Cuba," said Mr Weisbrot.

"They add all these things up and feel they shouldn't have to tolerate such a government even if he's won seven elections in the last five years."

With oil prices high and global supplies facing uncertainties, Venezuela, a significant producer, has a new importance.

So some argue the Bush administration's enthusiasm for political change in Venezuela may be tempered by concern for stability - and an eagerness to avoid the sort of disruption which could push up petrol prices.