Symbolic struggle for Iraq in Najaf

By Jonathan Marcus
BBC diplomatic correspondent

With indications that a truce is in place in Najaf and that the fighting has, for the moment at least, died down, the situation in the city seems to have returned to uneasy stand-off.

The Iraqi government's authority would be eroded by defeat in Najaf

At the outset of this fighting, there was a good deal of talk that this was an operation to deal with Moqtada Sadr and his followers once and for all.

The US assault had the full-backing of the interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.

Some Iraqi troops were even involved in the operation as a sign of the Iraqi government's resolve.

We do not know how this stand-off will end. But while it is the fighting that has captured the headlines, it is the politics that is rather more important.

This is a direct struggle between the authority of Mr Allawi's government and the radical Shia cleric, whose private army threatens to derail the democratic process.

It is no accident that this showdown is taking place just days ahead of a conference intended to establish a new national advisory council - the next stage in the gradual move towards a more democratic system.

But politics imposes constraints on the military strategy as well. US troops cannot directly assault the Imam Ali Mosque in Najaf - one of Shia Islam's holiest sites - nor can they risk serious damage to the building.

Battle of attrition

They have instead chosen to establish a tight cordon around the area within which Mr Sadr's fighters are squeezed. This may end as a battle of attrition, wearing down the cleric's militia.

His own fate is uncertain, and there are conflicting reports - some saying he has been wounded, others that he is actively involved in negotiations.

Najaf of course is not his real powerbase, which resides in the poor Shia suburbs of Sadr City on the north-eastern edge of Baghdad.

A defeat for Mr Sadr in Najaf would be a setback, not a disaster.

But if the Iraqi government cannot evict his forces from Najaf, its authority will be seriously weakened.