'No Iraq impact' on US elections

By Rob Watson
BBC Washington correspondent

The current fighting around Najaf has again put Iraq at or near the top of the television nightly news bulletins.

Images of battle have been reminding US voters that Iraq is not yet at peace, despite the handover of power to an interim Iraqi government at the end of June.

Some analysts say unforeseen events in Iraq could leave Bush vulnerable

The conventional wisdom is that Iraq can only be a vote loser for US President George W Bush.

After all, the wisdom goes, you do not tend to win re-election in America if you start wars that do not have a neat beginning, middle and end.

But the latest opinion polls suggest the continuing violence in Iraq is not giving either candidate a distinct advantage or disadvantage with the voters.

Recent polls by Gallup and Time magazine suggest the country is evenly divided over whether President Bush or John Kerry would be the best person for handling Iraq.

Interestingly, the Gallup poll finds that Americans are not convinced that either man has a clear plan. It said 42% gave the president credit for having such a plan, while only 38% said Senator Kerry did.

Divided country

To some extent these figures are not entirely surprising. Although it is true John Kerry has spent a lot of time criticising the president's handling of foreign policy these last few weeks, his policy on Iraq is not radically different to the approach of the president.

Kerry's policy on Iraq is not radically different from the president's

Senator Kerry is not, after all, an "anti-war" candidate and is not advocating the rapid withdrawal of US forces.

Overall the country also remains very closely divided over whether or not the war was a mistake in the first place.

The Time magazine poll found an absolutely dead even split of 47% who thought it was a mistake, against 47% who thought it was not.

Damage potential

Worryingly for President Bush though, the figures do not look so good when the question is asked of those who describe themselves as neither Democrats nor Republicans.

Bush should be worried by independents' lack of support for the war

There, the figures suggest 55% of independent voters consider the war a mistake.

As to what the US should do next in Iraq, again there is no strong consensus among voters.

A variety of polls suggest a majority of Americans believe US troops should stay in Iraq, though there is disagreement as to how long for.

Despite the latest poll findings there is still a consensus among commentators that Iraq has more potential to hurt President Bush than to help him.

They argue that Iraq remains a very unpredictable place where unforeseen events between now and election day in November leave the president potentially very vulnerable.