Turkey finds new Cyprus resolve

By Ebru Dogan
BBC News Online

Eleven months after Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktash turned his back on a UN plan to reunify the island the talks may be about to resume.

Turkey's PM Erdogan (right) is acting with a new confidence

This is mainly thanks to a new-found appetite for negotiations on the Turkish side, and a recent diplomatic offensive designed to seize the initiative.

Turkey took the world by surprise last week by dropping its hardline position and proposing a shortcut formula for a speedy resolution.

It argues that this is the only chance, if the Turkish- and Greek-speaking Cypriot communities want to reach an agreement before Cyprus joins the EU.

Unless a re-unification deal is reached, in effect only the internationally recognised government in the south will join the EU, and the Turkish-controlled north will be left out in the cold.

So Ankara suggested that the sides try to resolve as many issues as possible by 1 May, then put the resulting framework agreement to referendums on both sides in Cyprus - and let UN fill in the blanks later.

There is an opportunity here that we hope to seize US Secretary of State Colin Powell

The new coalition government in northern Cyprus, and after considerable pressure from Turkey, Mr Denktash, backed the proposal.

But for the strategy to work, several others need convincing.

Among the international actors, Washington seems to be won over already.

Waiting for the UN

US Secretary of State Colin Powell declared on Thursday that an agreement was close.

He rejected a Turkish offer to be involved in the talks as a mediator, but promised his "good offices".

"There is an opportunity here that we hope to seize," he said.

The EU is likely to endorse this position. It is not keen to inherit the Cyprus problem, but is reluctant to take the lead.

European Commission spokesman Jean-Christophe Filori told BBC News Online that Brussels fully relied on the UN's assessment.

If Turkey says, 'We do not accept the UN plan as a basis, let us agree to something less complicated,' then this does not work Greek analyst Theodore Couloumbis

"We understand that Mr Annan said his talks with the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan were constructive and encouraging," he said.

"That is our position as well."

Next in line, the UN. Mr Annan, who met Mr Erdogan in Davos last Saturday, has so far not committed himself to talks.

He first wants a commitment from Cypriot leaders they will hold referendums on the plan - by 1 May, "even if there is no agreement".

But the motto of Cypriot leaders, on both sides, is: "No agreement, no referendum."

The Greek side has other reservations, too.

Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos, after meeting Mr Annan in Brussels on Thursday, called for talks to resume immediately.

But he hinted that he was not happy with Turkey's proposal to hold referendums on just the basic elements of the plan.

His views are widely echoed in Greece.

Professor Theodore Couloumbis is the director of a leading think-tank in Athens, the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.

He says he welcomes the Turkish overture, although he is not 100% sure he understands it.

For example, he asked, what did Turkey's National Security Council mean when it accepted last Friday the UN plan as a "reference point", rather than a "basis" for talks?

"If Turkey says, 'We do not accept the UN plan as a basis, let us agree to something less complicated,' then this does not work," he says.

"They have been talking for two years. If the Turks now want to reject the product of this long and arduous process, then - forgive me for being blunt - this is nonsense."

Turkey wants a solution and it wants it before 1 May. They have no more time for the kind of games they have been playing since 1968 Former Turkish diplomat Yalim Eralp

Turkish political analyst Yalim Eralp, a former diplomat, insists his government is not trying to water down the plan.

"Turkey wants a solution and it wants it before 1 May," he says.

"They have no more time for the kind of games they have been playing since 1968."

He says Turkey has two reasons for this. First, its own membership bid: the EU has made it clear a deal in Cyprus would greatly increase Ankara's chances of starting accession talks next year.

Secondly, he adds: "They realise the Turkish Cypriot community will never get as good a deal as this one, if there is no deal [by 1 May] and Greek Cypriots enter the EU on their own."

Coming of age

Hence the rush. But the sea change in Turkish policy has also something to do with the coming-of-age of its 15-month-old government.

The governing Justice and Development Party faced the double challenge of pushing through a series of politically sensitive EU reforms and fending off pressures from the US to join the Iraq war, as soon as it came to power.

It has only just found the confidence to flex its muscles and to convince Mr Denktash, and his hardline supporters in Turkey, to show flexibility.

Mr Erdogan says they are not about to stop.

"Whatever the Greek side does," he says, "we will be one step ahead."