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Last Updated: Tuesday, 27 January, 2004, 17:34 GMT
Analysis: India-Pakistan talks

By Sanjoy Majumder
BBC News Online correspondent in Delhi

Indian PM Atal Behari Vajpayee (L) with Pakistani PM Zafarullah Jamali in Islamabad
Vajpayee's (L) key trip to Pakistan this month helped set up the talks
When Indian and Pakistani officials meet in Islamabad next month, they will be treading down a familiar path.

The two countries last held substantial talks in October 1998 when their foreign secretaries - the top civil servants in the respective foreign offices - met in Islamabad.

But events surrounding the talks ensured they ended in failure.

The two countries had just conducted nuclear tests and a few months later the two armies squared off in the Kargil region of Kashmir.

In contrast, these talks are to be held after a ground-breaking meeting in Pakistan between the two leaders in which they agreed to discuss all outstanding issues.

The two sides could be allowed to make progress on some issues but not others

Unlike their failed previous summit in Agra in the summer of 2001, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee have decided to play safe this time round.

They have fallen back on the tried and tested formula of letting civil servants unravel the knots, before the peace talks are bumped up to a higher level.

As well as Kashmir, next month's talks will focus on seven other bilateral issues:

  • Confidence-building
  • Terrorism and drugs

  • Trade and economic co-operation

  • The disputed Himalayan glacier of Siachen

  • Easier travel between the two countries

  • Indian plans to dam the Wullur lake in Kashmir

  • The disputed border region of the Sir Creek marshlands, near the western Indian state of Gujarat

In 1998 both countries agreed that the politically sensitive issues of peace and security and Kashmir were to be discussed at the level of foreign secretaries.

All other issues were to be discussed by civil servants drawn from representative ministries such as interior, culture and trade as well as foreign affairs.

Innovative approach

During the talks scheduled for next month, middle-ranking civil servants (joint secretaries) from the two foreign ministries will meet for two days before the two foreign secretaries meet on the final day of talks.

The Delhi-Lahore bus at the Wagah border post
Improved travel links are also on the talks agenda

"The joint secretaries will set the agenda for what will be discussed by the foreign secretaries," G Parthasarathy, a former Indian ambassador to Pakistan, told BBC News Online.

While the two teams will sit across each other and thrash out their differences, a lot of work will take place offstage - in the two capitals in the weeks leading up to the talks.

Former Indian foreign secretary Salman Haidar, who has been part of previous dialogues, says the two sides appear to want to move simultaneously on all issues - a departure from the past.

"The whole [peace] process has been disaggregated - this is quite innovative," he told BBC News Online.

That means the two sides could be allowed to make progress on some issues but not others.

"It gives the leadership more options - there are more balls in the air," says Mr Haidar.

But ultimately, it will boil down to the main issues confronting the two delegations, particularly Kashmir.

Former diplomats say there has to be movement on the issue that has plagued India-Pakistan relations for more than five decades for any substantial progress.


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