Parties roll up sleeves for review

By Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

When is a retirement not a retirement? When you're Ian Paisley and you are announcing your departure from Europe.

The DUP leader portrayed his decision as a clearing the decks exercise while he rolls up his sleeves to take on Bertie Ahern in the forthcoming talks.

Ian Paisley announced his retirement as an MEP

The party will meet the Irish Prime Minister in London next week before taking their place at Stormont for the review of the Good Friday Agreement on 3 February.

Sinn Fein will also be there at the first round-table meeting, to be chaired by Secretary of State Paul Murphy and Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen.

The DUP will no doubt justify their presence at the table by arguing that, strictly speaking, the plenary is not a negotiating session.

Remember the Ulster Unionists marching into Castle Buildings before the Good Friday Agreement was negotiated, purely, they maintained, to demand Sinn Fein's ejection from the talks? Well, let's watch that space.

With the Alliance, the SDLP, and the UK Unionists having now published their submissions to the review, the battle of ideas is becoming clearer.

Brian Cowen and Paul Murphy are to chair the first meeting

Alliance, the UK Unionists and the DUP will be demanding a radical overhaul of the Stormont machinery.

The Agreement's prime architects, the SDLP, argue that the deal ain't bust so doesn't need fixing.

Sinn Fein will probably dig their heels in on similar ground.

The Ulster Unionists haven't yet published their submission, although they have made clear their belief that all the talk of changing the nuts and bolts at Stormont is missing the point.

They believe the erosion of trust caused by alleged IRA intelligence gathering and other paramilitary activity should be tackled first and foremost.

With such a divergence of approach, it's hard to see enough common ground emerging before Easter, when London and Dublin hope the review will end.

Ministers might be tempted to try to hang on to the all-inclusive nature of the old devolved executive, but with a change to the way that cross-community support is determined.

A negotiator suggested to me that the review's failure may be necessary to generate ideas which the politicians can return to in future talks

Getting, say, 65% of all MLAs to support a devolved government would be easier than requiring a majority on both sides of the Stormont chamber.

However, this still leaves the thorny problem of paramilitarism, as well as the leap of the imagination necessary for anyone to envisage an administration being formed with the simultaneous backing of Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams.

Mr Adams, who was in the United States last week, has been talking about the possibility of separate movement on those elements of last year's British-Irish joint declaration which fall within the remit of London and Dublin.

He is reported to have said policing is one such issue, which the governments and the pro-Agreement parties could get together on.

Maybe in the medium term, a side deal on policing could be on the cards.

As far as the bigger constitutional picture is concerned, can the deadlock be broken?

Some say there's no chance ahead of either the full and final closure of the IRA campaign or of the full and final closure of Ian Paisley's political career.

One of the negotiators suggested to me that the review's failure may be necessary in order to generate ideas which the politicians can return to in future talks.

To borrow a horse racing metaphor from the former secretary of state, Peter Brooke, the politicians could find themselves around Easter, "camping on the course" with the intention of resuming their journey across the fences sometime in the autumn.