Will bribery scandal sink Sharon?

By David Chazan BBC correspondent in Jerusalem

Sharon's aides say he has been in tighter corners before - and survived

Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is under more pressure to quit than at any time since he was elected prime minister.

But, although the bribery scandal - known in Israel as the "Greek island affair" - has pushed the conflict with the Palestinians into the margins of Israeli public debate, it is not certain that it will force Mr Sharon out of office.

"There is a growing feeling of unease about the prime minister continuing in office," Shlomo Avineri, a political scientist at Hebrew University, says.

"It's an issue of public credibility, not just a legal issue."

Mr Sharon's aides have tried to put a brave face on an opinion poll published in one of Israel's leading newspapers.

It indicated that his political support is collapsing, with at least 49% of Israelis saying they want him to step down.

Mr Sharon's aides say the combative 75-year-old prime minister has been in tighter corners and survived.

Political death throes?

It is true that controversy has often clouded his career but, if charges are brought against Mr Sharon, he will almost certainly have to quit.

Sharon was criticised over the Sabra-Shatila massacres

Justice ministry officials are considering whether to charge him, but it will take weeks or even months for them to decide.

Some analysts say that, even if he is not charged, he may still be in his political death throes.

"The erosion that is going to cause his demise started when the political operatives began to look to the next most promising candidate," Hebrew University political scientist Yaron Ezrahi says.

"And this process has already started in the last few days in a big way.

"They think he won't survive. They may be wrong, but it could be a self-fulfilling decision," he added.

He said another factor will be the position of Likud's main coalition partner, the centrist Shinui party headed by Justice Minister Yosef Lapid, who is standing by Mr Sharon for the time being.

Professor Ezrahi believes that may soon change.

"He will succumb to growing pressure from Shinui supporters, who are not so cynical as to accept that their leader in Shinui is contaminated by what appears to be a colossal case of corruption."

Potent force

But Mr Sharon's political future has been written off before, for example when an Israeli investigation criticised him for allowing Phalangist militias to enter the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in Lebanon and kill more than 2,000 Palestinians when he was defence minister in 1982.

Netanyahu is - like Sharon - viewed as a hardliner by Palestinian leaders

He lost the defence portfolio and was internationally condemned - but he remained a potent political force.

Israelis re-elected him as prime minister last year because of his tough line against the Palestinian uprising and his promises to improve security - despite accusations that he funded his campaign illegally.

If he does quit, his political opponents in Israel and his critics around the world will welcome the departure of the man who has come to symbolise Israel's controversial occupation of Palestinian territories and what most Arabs - and a significant number of Europeans - see as its harsh treatment of civilians in the territories.

But the most likely contender to take over, Finance Minister and former Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, is also viewed as a hardliner by Palestinian leaders - many of whom believe peace will be impossible while Likud leads the government.

Quiet preparations

Both Mr Netanyahu and another possible successor, Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, have been careful not to appear to be taking advantage of the storm swirling around Mr Sharon to further their own ambitions.

Yet, behind the scenes, Likud officials have been quietly preparing for the possibility that he may have to go.

The coalition whip, Gideon Saar, has been pushing for a change in the law which would allow Likud and its coalition allies three weeks instead of one to choose a successor.

Three weeks would give Likud time to hold primary elections - a step analysts say would favour Mr Netanyahu.

If the one-week period stands, analysts say that would play to Mr Shalom's advantage.

The choice of the new prime minister would effectively be left to Likud's Central Committee, a step that analysts say would favour Mr Shalom.

Palestinian officials believe he is also unlikely to make what they would regard as genuine concessions for peace.