Blair to press new strategy

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

The state visit comes at an awkward time

Tony Blair intends to press President George W Bush this week to develop a stronger political game plan in Iraq to go alongside the tougher security measures now being taken.

A key element is a so-called "Sunni strategy" under which the country's middle belt of Sunni Muslims, traditionally favourable to Saddam Hussein, could be brought on board.

Without them, it is felt in London, the plan for a handover of power by the end of June next year might fail.

Details were given to reporters on a visit to London by the British representative in Iraq, Sir Jeremy Greenstock.

Sunni strategy

He said that the plan includes trying to persuade the Sunnis that they will have a strong say in a new Iraq, handing out more contracts in their areas and creating more jobs.

There has to be a comprehensive approach to turning the position round - defence has to go beyond the use of military power into political outreach Sir Jeremy Greenstock

Sir Jeremy said: "The British view is that there has to be a comprehensive approach to turning the position round.

"Defence has to go beyond the use of military power into political outreach."

He refused to criticise American policy in Iraq but did say wryly: "The good old Brits are practical and pessimistic perhaps. We can see the potholes ahead. We have been in Iraq before and have had experience of insurgencies from Malaya to Kenya to Northern Ireland."

Senior British officials said that the Americans "had never been in the business of bottom-up peace-making."

The hope is that if things go well, the US and UK will go back to the Security Council at some stage to get its approval for the new proposals.

Whether Mr Blair makes an impact on Mr Bush this week will be a test of his policy of "engagement" with the United States.

British access

He will, Sir Jeremy said, get at least one important concession from Mr Bush.

An "unprecedented" security operation is in place

British companies will be given equal access to future contracts for the rebuilding of Iraq.

"At last they have noticed that we are a member of the coalition," said a British official.

This first state visit to Britain by an American president has come at an awkward time.

The UK Government says that the invitation went out in the spring of last year and therefore was not issued in premature anticipation of a triumph in Iraq.

But things have not gone as well as had been hoped in Iraq, and both Prime Minister Blair and President Bush will have to brave the week out.

They have tried to take the sting out of some of the protests by announcing a timetable for a handover, though US and British troops will stay on to help a transitional government.

Key issues

There are a number of other key issues, which could demonstrate whether Mr Bush sees Mr Blair as an influence, not just a follower.

Guantanamo Bay:Two of the nine British detainees were on a list of six prisoners destined for military tribunals.

Their cases were then suspended after British protests. President Bush says that he wants Mr Blair to be "comfortable" with arrangements but is still speaking of the men facing tribunals.

This issue will test the effectiveness of Mr Blair's approach.

Steel: The United States has just lost a case in the World Trade Organisation over tariffs on steel imports which Mr Bush imposed in March 2002.

If the US does not withdraw them by next month, the EU and other countries will have the right to slap matching duties amounting to well over $3bn on a range of products.

These could include fruit from Florida, a key state in next year's presidential election.

The Middle East roadmap: Mr Blair did manage to get President Bush to publish this plan as a quid pro quo for his support over Iraq.

He argued that Washington must get engaged in the regional crisis between Israel and the Palestinians.

Since then, the map has been trampled on and lies crumpled up.

The Russians want the Security Council to endorse it. How will President Bush get things moving?

Blair policy

The key to understanding Mr Blair's attitude, according to senior Foreign Office officials, is the speech he made on British foreign policy on 10 November.

In it he spoke about the twin pillars of British policy resting on relations with the US and the European Union.

Britain and the rest of Europe had to engage the United States, not seek to isolate or rival it, he maintained.

"If Europe were to let anti-Americanism define its foreign policy, it would be disaster," he said, declaring defiantly that he believed "this is exactly the right time for [Mr Bush] to come."

Toothpaste

Another key to understanding why Mr Blair rejects criticism of the visit goes back, I believe, to February 2001.

Similar visions of the world

It was then, amid the snows of the Catoctin mountains north of Washington, that Tony Blair met George Bush in the presidential retreat of Camp David, not long after Mr Bush had taken office.

To the surprise of reporters who had got used to the rapport between Tony Blair and Bill Clinton, the prime minister, in jeans and shirtsleeves, clearly struck up a relationship with the new, Republican president.

The two men even joked that they both used Colgate toothpaste. No one mentioned that this is an American product.

Mr Blair, we were told by senior British officials present, got on well with Mr Bush and saw him as a clear sighted leader.

George Bush seemed to appeal to Mr Blair's own vision of the world.

It is a vision which believes in taking strong decisions, as was first seen when Mr Blair pressed for the use of ground troops in Kosovo, against the wishes of President Clinton.

It has been seen again in Iraq.

Mr Blair's admiration for Mr Bush apparently survives.