US sends signal to Saddam loyalists

Analysis By Jonathan Marcus BBC defence correspondent

Since the middle of last week, the US military in Iraq has stepped up its operations against insurgents loyal to Saddam Hussein's regime.

They have used air power and even a long-range missile to strike targets thought to be used by elements attacking US forces.

US military involvement in Iraq is not going to end any time soon

The latest of these counter-insurgency missions in Tikrit has been dubbed "Operation Ivy Cyclone II".

It is a clear effort to seize back the initiative after significant US losses and to shape public perceptions, both on the ground in Iraq and back home in the United States.

Ivy Cyclone II is not the first counter-insurgency operation launched by US forces and it won't be the last.

US spokesmen say it heralds a new "get tough" policy - a willingness to go onto the offensive and use some of the heavier weapons in the US arsenal.

The use of a heavy artillery missile for the first time since major combat operations ended was a certain attention-getter.

Fighting back

Ivy Cyclone is focussed around Tikrit, Ba'quba, Kirkuk and Balad.

However, recent US operations have detained suspected insurgents in Mosul, and F-16 jets attacked a building said to be used as a storage and staging area in Husayaba, near the Syrian border.

It sends a message to an uncertain US public that their forces can fight back

It is still unclear if this latest operation is having any greater success than previous offensives.

In any case the impact of such operations can only be cumulative, but Operation Ivy Cyclone is about sending signals as well as delivering military blows.

It is intended to show those loyal to Saddam Hussein in Iraq that US resolve is not weakening, despite the significant increase in US casualties.

And similarly, it sends a message to an uncertain US public that their forces can fight back.

Politics

Military operations can influence the evolving climate in Iraq, but the fundamental problems are not military, but political.

US resolve depends crucially on the support of public opinion at home.

But even more importantly in Iraq, Washington and its allies will be judged on the speed with which they can hand over sovereignty to an Iraqi authority.

Politics now is everything. Certainly the Americans must strive to improve security and consolidate the re-building effort.

If Washington's plans are to succeed, it is vital for ordinary Iraqis to sense that their lives are improving.

Key test

America's military involvement in Iraq is not going to end any time soon. But the political context in which the Americans operate is the central issue that will determine their success or failure.

And the key test for the Americans will be to keep Iraq's Shia majority onside throughout the transitional period.

So far the anti-American violence has largely been localised in the so-called Sunni triangle north and west of Baghdad.

But if the Shia began a large-scale insurgency of their own, Washington's position could be many, many times worse.