US gambles on Plan B

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online World affairs correspondent

The sudden decision by the United States to hand over power by the end of June next year is a recognition that its present policy has failed - but the new policy, plan B, is also something of a gamble.

The change of direction will enable President Bush to be able to proclaim during his visit to Britain starting on 18 November that an end to the occupation is in sight.

The new moves are an admission the current plan has failed

That will help him not only internationally, but domestically, as he sizes up his prospects in the presidential election next year.

But this is not the end of the crisis - the success of the new approach depends on the Iraqi people accepting the legitimacy of the transitional government which is to take power.

If the resistance simply transfers its attentions from the occupation forces to the new authorities, then there could be civil war.

The Kurds in the north would not accept an Iraq dominated by resurgent pro-Saddam elements; nor would the Shias in the south.

The country could split apart.

'No alternative'

And nor does it mean that US and other foreign troops, including the British contingent in the South, will necessarily leave.

New handover timetable May 2004 - Formation of transitional assembly June 2004 - Election of interim government End of 2005 - Election of new government Timetable for Iraq transfer

The idea is that the new Iraqi governments, certainly the interim and probably the permanent one, might ask them to stay on.

But Washington and London will hope that the numbers of troops can be reduced.

There was really no alternative.

The previous plan envisaged that Iraq would be relatively quiet after the war.

There would be time for a constitution to be drawn up and then for elections to be held before a proper government took power.

That process has been reversed.

Critics satisfied?

There will now be a handover before a constitution is agreed.

The announcement will enable the Iraqi Governing Council (which has never had governing powers despite its name) to comply with the terms of Security Council resolution 1511 which "invited" it to produce a timetable for a return to Iraqi control by 15 December.

One question now is whether this timetable will satisfy critics of US policy like France and Russia.

The US and Britain can now be expected to return to the Security Council and seek full support.

The plan is designed to appeal to all three main groups.

Works on paper

The new interim government is to be selected by the end of June after countrywide consultations.

This suits the Kurds and the Sunnis who form minorities. They feel that their voice is better heard through such a mechanism.

Then there will be elections to a constituency assembly. That has always been the demand of the majority Shias who want to bring their voting power to bear in any way they can.

Finally, there will be full elections to a full government by the end of 2005. That should satisfy everyone.

That at least is the plan.