Voting tactics in spotlight

By Mark Devenport
BBC Northern Ireland political editor

To plump or not to plump? That is the question. For those not privy to the secrets of Single Transferable Voting, "plumping" is shorthand for a voter choosing candidates from one party and one party alone.

Transferring your later preferences to another party is the alternative approach open to those in this PR (Proportional Representation) assembly election.

It has been the focus of great attention during the past few days of the campaign.

Tactical voting is nothing new in Northern Ireland

Sinn Fein accused the SDLP of rejecting an approach about a mutual voting transfer pact.

The SDLP claimed that Sinn Fein canvassers, far from advocating transfers between pro-Agreement candidates, were telling republican voters to "plump" for Sinn Fein candidates alone.

Seamus Mallon called on pro-Agreement voters, including unionists, to back the SDLP in those constituencies where they might be fighting for the final 6th seat in order to "give the DUP a bloody nose".

Even Martin McGuinness said republicans should consider supporting pro-Agreement unionists.

The DUP believe they will take a big trawl of first preference votes, but if they have a "nightmare scenario" it will be that their lack of transfers lets them down.

The SDLP have certainly devoted a great deal of their resources to tactical voting. Anyone who has walked around central Belfast will see their somewhat surprising poster featuring the two Paisleys, Ian and his son, Ian junior.

Voters may look for guidance on who to elect to a new Stormont assembly

The message "two good reasons to vote for the SDLP" is intended as a humorous and sophisticated appeal to pro-Agreement voters.

But some DUP supporters believe the poster will eventually backfire, providing them with free publicity and the SDLP with scant dividends.

Of course tactical voting in Northern Ireland is not new.

Anyone who covered the Westminster election of 1992 will remember the crucial role unionist voters on the Shankill Road played in helping Joe Hendron unseat Gerry Adams in West Belfast.

However, the reasons for unionists to vote tactically were clearer then. This is an altogether more complex contest.

Historically, voters have tended to transfer along unionist/nationalist lines, or from one end of the spectrum towards the middle.

For obvious reasons there's not many who switch their allegiances between Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley, although a rather puzzling 1% of Sinn Fein voters interviewed by pollsters for the Belfast Telegraph this week claimed they would give a second preference to the DUP.

More predictably, 64% of Sinn Fein voters said they would transfer to the SDLP, whilst 32% of SDLP voters would give a later preference to Sinn Fein.

Fellow feeling on the unionist side appears less marked. 27% of Ulster Unionist voters told the pollsters they would give a second preference to the DUP, whilst 28% of DUP supporters would opt for the UUP.

The Northern Ireland electorate who are pretty savvy will no doubt make their own sense of the situation

As Joe Hendron's temporary victory over Gerry Adams made clear, cross-community voting can happen, but the numbers involved tend to be small.

Moreover, one cannot help feeling sorry for voters who might be looking for guidance from their leaders on how to play the game.

Against a backdrop of ill feeling generated by the SDLP's exclusion from the recent Ulster Unionist Sinn Fein negotiations at Downing Street, there isn't going to be a Waterfront moment in this campaign, when the SDLP and UUP leaders hold hands in the company of a famous rock band.

Instead Mark Durkan couldn't bring himself to utter the name "David Trimble" when asked who his voters should transfer to, whilst senior Ulster Unionists mutter darkly when asked whatever happened to a formal pro-Agreement pact.

That means it looks like "every man for himself" when it comes to the pro-Agreement camp.

The Northern Ireland electorate, who are pretty savvy, will no doubt make their own sense of the situation.

But it will be no thanks to the confused signals some of their politicians are sending out.