Iraq expert predicts uncertain future

Using Saddam's palaces for the coalition can send the wrong message

A renowned intelligence analyst sees several possible scenarios for the future of Iraq, but none has the United States making a quick success.

Anthony Cordesman, former senior official in the US departments of defence, state and energy, said no-one could yet predict how well - or how badly - things would go.

While it was easy to identify problems with both the civilian and military involvement of the US in Iraq, he said there were no simple answers.

Mr Cordesman returned to Washington after 12 days in Iraq this month saying it was impossible to call anyone an "expert" on the country any more.

"There is a tendency to see the situation in Iraq either in terms of inevitable victory or inevitable defeat, or to polarise an assessment on the basis of political attitudes towards the war," he wrote in a report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

"In practice, Iraq seems to be a remarkably fluid and dynamic situation field with uncertainties that dominate both the present and the future."

Difficulties, not blame

Mr Cordesman - a CSIS strategic analyst - identified various problems with the US involvement after his visit, where he spoke to military and civilian leaders in Baghdad, Babel, Kirkuk and Tikrit.

But he was careful not to apportion blame to either the US military or the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) headed by Paul Bremer when he spoke to reporters.

Mr Cordesman said tactical mistakes were being made - such as locating the CPA headquarters and billeting soldiers inside the palaces of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

I see no evidence... that what we are doing is influencing Iraqi hearts and minds effectively Anthony Cordesman, CSIS

That was sending the wrong signals, and could reinforce feelings among many Iraqis that the Americans were occupiers not liberators.

Other difficulties arose because the US forces simply do not have enough Arabic speakers and because politicians and the public were expecting results too quickly.

He said there were some problems between the uniformed and civilian organisations on the ground: "There is still a lot of tension - part of it is inevitable.

"The CPA has needs and the military has a mission and they don't necessarily coincide."

And while he said it would be unfair to suggest that US military and civilian leaders were insensitive to what they needed to do, he said political concerns might be interfering with advances.

The US has a significant TV and radio presence in the country, but they are broadcasting messages that Americans want to put out, which are different to the messages that Iraqis might want to hear or act on, he said.

"I see no evidence... that what we are doing is influencing Iraqi hearts and minds effectively," he said.

"We have the mechanisms but we have not yet developed an effective message."

Coalition forces cannot afford to lose Shia support, Mr Cordesman says

There was still some hangover of the unrealistic expectations voiced by some political conservatives before the war - such as Iraq after Saddam becoming an example of progress and democracy which could become a beacon for change elsewhere in the Middle East, Mr Cordesman said.

Even if there was no pressure to make Iraq a role model, there remains an immensely complex situation in Iraq.

Mr Cordesman warned that the US and its coalition partners could lose the peace and in many different ways - by losing the support of the majority Shia population or the Sunnis or the Kurds.

He said he was told that most attacks on coalition forces are carried out by Iraqis loyal to the old regime, but there always remained potential for foreign terrorists to try to exploit the situation.

Mr Cordesman was in Iraq when Mr Bremer was recalled suddenly to the White House for discussions about speeding up a transfer of power to Iraqis.

But he said one of the many uncertainties would be to whom to transfer power.

Asked what the situation could be like in a year from now - when presidential elections will be at the top of the US agenda, he said he saw four scenarios:

• The US has left Iraq, rejected by its people and having decided the war was unwinnable
• Many areas remained to be tackled by the US but starts had been made in writing a constitution and holding elections
• The US has a clear schedule to turn over the country to Iraqis
• Relations between the US and Iraqis have improved to the extent that American personnel can stay longer and see their mission through.

"The one scenario I don't see is that we have been able to do everything really well in the timeframe and we have this example of democracy that can restructure the Middle East," Mr Cordesman said.