Democracy in Iraq

They wouldn't dream of calling it anything as undignified as a crisis meeting. But the summoning to Washington of the American governor of Iraq, the discussions there involving the British Foreign Secretary do have an urgency about them.

At the heart of the issue is the question of whether Iraq is ready for the transfer of power. Plenty of effort has been going in to rebuilding the physical infrastructure of the country - but has enough been done to repair, or establish the institutions necessary for democratic government?

Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban reported from Iraq.

MARK URBAN:
On a busy junction in Baghdad, the traffic lights fail. Soon there is gridlock. Frustrated motorists start tackling the problem. But when each one of them gets his own car through, he leaves and the traffic seizes up again. Then some Americans appear on the scene. They take responsibility even though they were on other business. They've even picked up the Arab hand gesture for be patient. 15 minutes later an Iraqi traffic cop arrives and the Americans can leave. Here then is the mission, an attempt to inculcate western notions, to get this country moving towards a democratic future.

NISREEN BARWARI:
Minister for Public Works
We are basically starting from Zero and to manage the level of expectation of people is really one of our difficult tasks. People think with the change, everything should happen, but building a democratic and fair and just society does take time and we are starting the process.

SIR JEREMY GREENSTOCK:
UK Special Representative for Iraq
No country in the world should be classified as beyond democracy. That is very important to help the people of the Middle East if they would like to do it because it can only be done under popular momentum. If they would like to do it, then this is the time to do it.

MARK URBAN:
Many of those who supported the war in Iraq, did so because they wanted to install a democracy here. Get the process moving in Iraq, they reasoned, and you might break the whole gridlock of failed Middle Eastern regimes. Well now at least six months on we can get some idea of how that project is going. Late at night in central Baghdad the presses roll. The paper is one of dozens to exploit the new freedom of speech here. Like many of the other editions, this one still keeps much of its editorial staff in that centre of Arab free-thinking, London. But circulation is Burgeoning, the Azzaman print run has increased ten fold since April, so there is every prospect that Baghdad might resume its role as an intellectual power house. Others may then follow Mustapha al-Rawi's return to Iraq after years in British exile.

MUSTAPHA AL-RAWI:
Editor, "Iraq Today"
With curfew being lifted, or you know, new laws that are basically released in SAHBAH first, so a lot of people will read this paper. The market is becoming more sophisticated and over the next six to twelve months, I think it will become even more so. It has become more sober journalism, at the beginning it was shrieking, it was as if the CPA or the coalition did something wrong they would scream it out and not check their sources and not apologise if they got things wrong. At the same time if the CPA did something good they were hesitant to mention it. But now I think what's happened is that there has been a bit more of a balance and these newspapers are printing what is good and what is bad, and trying to be more sober, objective and realistic about things.

MARK URBAN:
What about the limits that the culture itself sets? I mean could you have a photo of a woman in a swimsuit?

MUSTAPHA AL-RAWI:
Tribal Chief, Mansoor Tribe
Yeah they do, oh they frequently do. In fact a lot of Iraqi newspapers on the back page will have pictures of models and the latest beautiful film star of the day. Sandra Bullock was in one of the papers this morning on the back. Of course we're not talking about porn, but at the same time there is no limits. Really this is an open market now.

MARK URBAN:
Down in Iraq's deep south, just outside Qurna, Things don't move at quite the same speed though. In recent weeks, dams created by Saddam to drain the marshes have been broken and water now laps in the towns canals once more. The people here are Shi'ites and also belong to one of the country's larger tribes, the Mansours. In a reed-built long house, Sheikh Kamel invites us to join his diwaniyeh. This is a traditional form of Arab democracy, all male, a hereditary gathering of Kamel's lesser cousins. They decided to shun the coalition backed elections to local councils. They're also watching events in Baghdad with a wary eye. There's a constitution being haggled over in Iraq at the moment, and these men are quite sure that it needs to enshrine the power of tribal leaders and tribal courts in resolving disputes even up to murder.

SHEIKH KAMIL HANOON ABU-AL HAIL:
There is no conflict between tribal customs and the law of the state, since tribal custom is part of the constitution of rules of the state. No law can be issued in Iraq in contravention of these customs because the majority of the Iraqi people are from tribal groups. Therefore the tribes rights must be guaranteed by the constitution and so tribal customs cannot conflict with the law of the state.

MARK URBAN:
A little up the road, Imam Kareem presides over the local Shi'ite shrine and mosque. This is the other leg of the Mansour tribe's power here. Friday worshippers took the opportunity to study a flyer. It was from a cleric was propagating a pro- coalition message, but there are rejectionists too. The Shi'ites number nearly 60% of Iraqis but differences between them make it hard for them to dominate the constitutional drafting process.

IMAM HAJ KAREEM HAMEED MUHSIN:
Of course if there were only one voice, that would be the ideal. When there are many parties the people are divided. It's OK to have many parties, but I believe that one party is better. I hope Allah will keep the Iraqi's well and that they are careful to arrange their affairs properly.

UNNAMED MAN 1:
Then we have assertive behaviour...

MARK URBAN:
40 miles away, at one of the country's new police academies, Danish trainers are hard at work.

UNNAMED MAN 1:
He is ready to listen...

MARK URBAN:
It is here that one of the most liberal policing cultures in the world comes face to face with religious, tribal and political differences. Some say the Iraqi police are already being overwhelmed by these local pressures, but they insist they can cope.

CAPTAIN MUSTAPHA HUSSEIN SAYID:
Iraqi Police Service
If there is co-operation between the police and the people we shall achieve democracy. The role of the police officer and every individual working for the security institutions must be to encourage people to embrace the notion of democracy and to cooperate to avoid tribal clan and religious clashes and to accept that the police is unbiased and there to serve everyone.

MARK URBAN:
The police and other programmes for southern Iraq are run from this compound in Basra. The Coalition Provisional Authority dishes out the money and tries to foster Western notions of 'best practice'. The ex-pats live in these. Self-contained western individuals who now try to change a land of faiths and clans. Those in charge accept there are limits to their influence.

SIR HILARY SYNNOTT:
Head, Coalition Provisional Authority South
I hope and expect that it would be different from say our, the British form of democracy. I have served a lot in developing countries, India has a flourishing, unique idiosyncratic form of democracy which does seam to work. It needs to be attuned to the environment, to my mind, what we are really talking about is greater participation by the people in their own governments, and I think people welcome that concept. If you start defining it too much, then you will start getting differences.

MARK URBAN:
The Westerners and Iraqis have found it easiest to develop a common language where money is involved. Construction of an American inspired market economy is proceeding apace. KBR, the US contractor has brought in hundreds of ex-pat staff, at the same time as the Red Cross agonised about pulling out. Another contractor, Global Security, has 500 Fijians, led by Brits, providing security for the CPA. U

NNAMED MAN 2:
Chin strap up, you're not American!

MARK URBAN:
Things are still a little bit rough and ready at the Basra central bank vault. The new economy needs new money. The convoy's sacks contain 28 billion dinars or about £15 million. It's being carried off for destruction. Downtown at Basra's Rafadayam bank they're harvesting the old notes. They are dipped to spoil them, before being bagged up for the CPA. They are being replaced by something of higher face value, ie. minus Saddam and in larger denominations. The changeover programme is going swimmingly, and the manager here predicts similar success as Iraq's privatisation gets under way.

NAZHAT SALIM AL-SHAWI:
Branch Manager, Rafidain Bank
Yes, Yes most businessmen encourage and are looking forward to privatisation. Most government institutions can be run by the private sector. Some businessmen are so financially capable that they could by all of the government institutions and develop them.

MARK URBAN:
It would be wrong to think though that the political passion of this moment can be bought off by economic improvements. There is still anger here aplenty and the emergence of new political forces. These demonstrators support Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shi'ite cleric with a strong anti-American message. In this case, they had been disarmed by British troops, but they are vying for influence in the new police force and to hold arms as many other parties do. It's a potential time-bomb for the CPA because political rivalries might easily turn violent.

SIR HILARY SYNNOTT:
People who directly challenge the coalition and who set up militias to challenge the coalition have to be dealt with somehow because ultimately the coalition at present have responsibility for law and order. But in general in the south there isn't much support for al-Sadr, they don't see him as acting in Iraq's interests and generally the religious parties are not as politically active as in some other countries where I have served.

MARK URBAN:
The argy-bargy in the provinces reverberates back in Baghdad and since Saddam was toppled from his plinth in Paradise Square, new political groups have multiplied. At the moment they're shut out of drafting the constitution, something being done by old exile parties who seem in no hurry to put themselves to the democratic test. How many parties have been registered or formed since the fall of Saddam do you think?

RAHMAN AL-JABOURI:
National Democratic Institute
Well I think it is between ninety to one hundred and twenty real parties. I want an election, but I don't see the election will be serving the Iraqi's next year. A lot of home grown political forces didn't have the chance or opportunity to know the people or the people to know them.

MARK URBAN:
The Interim Governing Council is now the object of intense coalition frustration. There's a feeling they are dragging their feet on the constitution, savouring their power, while dangerous tensions simmer on the street. In Iraqi ministries too, those now shaping the country imply they're in no hurry to rush through the constitution and move to elections.

NISREEN BARWARI
(Minister for Public Works):
I think elections should happen when we are ready. Let us hold elections when Iraq as a society is ready. When things are settled, when sensors are conducted, when legislations are in place. When political parties have the time to establish themselves. When the citizens of Iraq are clear about which parties can represent them better.

MARK URBAN:
In the old presidential palaces now used by the Coalition Provisional Authority, they're now wondering what they must do to force the political pace.

SIR JEREMY GREENSTOCK
(UK Special Representative for Iraq):
We would like there to be elections in 2004.

MARK URBAN:
Initially, ambassador Bremer was talking about as early as June perhaps, that wouldn't seem possible now, or do you think that may be possible?

SIR JEREMY GREENSTOCK :
It's less likely. We have been looking before the end of 2004.

MARK URBAN:
Baghdad's Sharjah market is sometimes called the pulse of Iraq. If a ruler were to move about here in disguise today, trying to gauge the popular mood, he would still find a good deal of optimism about the country's transformation to democracy. There is however a strong desire to shape a distinctively Iraqi, Islamic future for the country. Those running the occupation say it has a short shelf life. It is that limitation on the degree of Western commitment here, which will limit the degree to which our ideas of democracy can flavour the Iraqi version. People here may like free speech and the free market, but there own notions of tribe, religious faith and region are bound to dominate the political process. The limits to the occupiers' commitment also mean a limit to their patience. They are now trying to shove divided Iraqi politicians forward. That pressure will show how far Iraq is ready to resolve its differences by argument and how far they may resort to force.

This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.