Handing over the keys in Iraq

by Paul Reynolds News Online world affairs correspondent

The United States now appears ready for a major shift of policy in Iraq by forming a provisional government before a new constitution is drawn up.

Paul Bremer faces intense times

A crisis visit to Washington by the US administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, has led to a reversal of the original timetable under which a constitution would first be agreed, elections would be held and only then would a government take over.

The exact sequence has not yet been decided because Mr Bremer has yet to discuss this with the Iraqi Governing Council on his return to Baghdad.

Mr Bremer has predicted a very "intense" period ahead.

New policy needed

Under the terms of UN Security Council resolution 1511, a timetable is supposed to be drawn up by 15 December.

President Bush wants to have a viable exit strategy in place before the presidential campaign gets under way properly next year

Next summer is being spoken of as a target date for a new authority. But that might have to be speeded up if events continue to deteriorate.

The French Foreign Minister Dominque de Villepin called for a "representative" body to be appointed by the end of the year.

That is not impossible but that has not been decided.

Nor is it not clear when and in what form there would be elections, whether they would be needed for a constitutional assembly and then again later for a fully-fledged government.

There has been an argument on the Iraqi Governing Council between the Shia, the majority ethnic group, who want an assembly chosen by ballot and others who would prefer it chosen by appointment.

Every day brings fresh attacks on coalition forces in Iraq

But handing over the keys is now a vital requirement of US policy.

President Bush wants to have a viable exit strategy in place before the presidential campaign gets under way properly next year.

The issue will form the centre of discussions with the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, in London next week and it is vital that they have a new policy to project.

Afghan precedent

The parallel which US and British policy-makers draw is with Afghanistan. There, a figure of stature, Hamid Karzai, was appointed as interim leader in advance of a constitution being drawn up and of elections being called.

Karzai had the support of a loya jirga or national gathering.

Iraq lacks a figure with the stature of Hamid Karzai

The problem in Iraq is that there is no such figure. If there had been, things might have been done differently.

This is partly because the country is basically divided into three - Kurds, Sunnis and Shias. Whoever appeals to one group might not appeal to another.

So it is likely that authority will have to be vested in a government, not an individual. There might even be, as now, a revolving leadership.

The hope would be that a new Iraqi authority would be able to take on the resistance itself. It would need to. After all, it would probably be the next target after the occupation forces.

If this worked, then US and British troops might be drawn down.

But there is no guarantee of that.

Support lacking from other countries

If a provisional government was set up, it would help get other countries involved, though the attack on the Italians makes it hard for any government to send troops right now.

The attack on the Italian police base killed at least 27 people

The Japanese are now holding back; the Turks have decided not to contribute, though a lot of that had to do with Iraqi opposition.

Dominique de Villepin, perhaps the leading world critic of American policy, did offer a very small olive branch to Washington.

He said: "Our hand is held out to our American friends."

But he also insisted that France would not offer support until a government was established.

He accused the Americans of still using the "language of occupiers" and asked: "How many deaths must we count before we realise we must change the approach?"