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Last Updated: Saturday, 29 November, 2003, 13:36 GMT
What now for political process?
BBC NI political editor Mark Devenport
By Mark Devenport
BBC Northern Ireland political editor

If anyone was in any doubt about why Tony Blair has been so shy about voters exercising their democratic rights in Northern Ireland they got their answer this week.

After the two-day marathon count finished, from the government's point of view, the news couldn't have been much worse.

Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams triumphed. David Trimble and Mark Durkan tottered.

Speaking on the BBC's Inside Politics programme on Saturday, the Northern Ireland Secretary, Paul Murphy, admitted that he now faced a serious challenge, and that the discussions he is entering into will be more difficult than any before.

Ian Paisley has repeated his warning - first made on Inside Politics in November last year - that anyone from his party who engages in direct dialogue with Sinn Fein will be expelled.

Stormont
Elections are over, but assembly remains suspended

That means that the government's only option is to allow the DUP to participate in proximity talks - presumably in parallel with the formal review of the Agreement it intends to hold in January.

Tony Blair once said that the idea of the DUP sharing power with Sinn Fein was "pie in the sky".

Now Paul Murphy is left in the unenviable position of being asked to prepare the pastry.

The British and Irish governments have put down a marker by declaring that the fundamentals of the Agreement are not up for re-negotiation.

But the Northern Ireland secretary defined those fundamentals in broad terms on the Inside Politics programme.

They were the principle of consent, the idea that any institutions must be agreed between unionists and nationalists, and the existence of north-south and east-west bodies.

That means that the troublesome nuts and bolts of the assembly are potentially up for grabs.

The review could reconsider the system of assembly members designating themselves as unionists and nationalists, and the difficulties that causes for choosing a first and deputy first minister.

Equally, the review could cover the stand-alone powers of ministers which the DUP oppose.

The size of the assembly, which some would like reduced from 108 to 72, might also be examined again.

Whilst the talks at Stormont roll on, direct rule ministers will continue to make decisions about health, education and the other ordinary business of government.

Like Humpty Dumpty, the Good Friday Agreement is now coming to terms with the consequences of the laws of gravity
One suspects many voters - especially unionists - don't really mind that so long as the political fiasco does not impact on their "real world".

In the sense that the IRA is not going back to war, that's true.

But a political vacuum could have "real world" consequences - for instance, if it postpones the day when republicans buy into policing in the province.

As the largest nationalist party, will Sinn Fein believe it has the room for manoeuvre to make the jump on policing?

Or will it hold back waiting for the talks to deliver a restoration of power-sharing?

Either way the government intends to keep the Policing Board afloat with its current members.

One of them, the SDLP's Joe Byrne, lost his seat in West Tyrone and another two, the SDLP's Eddie McGrady and the Ulster Unionist Sam Foster, didn't stand for re-election. Officially they are all independents.

David Trimble has already talked about the possibility of a second election in six months' time after what he imagines will be a period of DUP deadlock.

But will Mr Trimble still be Ulster Unionist leader by then?

The government doesn't appear enthusiastic about a new election in the short term. However, Paul Murphy isn't ruling anything out in the longer term.

Like Humpty Dumpty, the Good Friday Agreement is now coming to terms with the consequences of the laws of gravity.

It will take the best and most ingenious efforts of all Bertie Ahern's horses and all Tony Blair's men to put the Agreement together again.





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