Pundit makes correct prediction

Tony Howard is always happy to dust off his crystal ball

Iain Duncan Smith might not have seen what was coming. Even Michael Howard might not have seen what was coming. But one man did.

At the start of this year, various experts in their fields were asked by BBC News Online to make predictions for the coming year.

Style guru Peter York said people would start dressing like Laurence Llewellyn-Bowen. Inventor Trevor Baylis said we would see wind-up laptops on the market.

There's still seven weeks for their predictions to come true. But veteran political commentator Tony Howard made a forecast which puts him straight to the top of the class.

He correctly calculated that Iain Duncan Smith would be deposed, and that Michael Howard would become the new leader. "He's rehabilitated himself fairly successfully," he said in January, "but whether he can live down [Anne Widdecombe's] 'something of the night' comment about him remains to be seen."

Although he made a mockery of the journalistic convention that New Year predictions must turn out to be comically wide of the mark, he has not make any money at the bookmakers.

'Money for jam'

According to William Hill, Tony could have had odds of 20/1 on IDS being replaced by Michael Howard.

In 2003 people will be dressing like Laurence Llewellyn-Bowen Your top predictions for 2003

But the former Times journalist says he no longer has a flutter on politics, after his normally unerring political antennae let him down on the eve of the 1970 general election, which resulted in a surprise win for the Tories.

"I gave up political betting in 1970. I didn't bet on Labour winning," he said. "Before that I had bet quite a lot on politics and had done quite well.

"I bet on Labour to win in 1966. It was 9 to 1 on. Money for jam! I won £200 on the 1964 election.

"I was going to bet on the 1970 election but something instinctive made me stop, some survival instinct."

Other soothsayers

Tony says he was "fairly convinced that Mr Duncan Smith would not last the year," although, he adds, "I had a wobble in the summer", after the Tories gained ground in the polls.

Current political odds 9/1 - Michael Howard loses seat at next election 3/1 - Michael Howard still leads Tories at election after that 1/4 - Tony Blair to lead Labour at next election 11/4 - Tony Blair to lead Labour at election after that Source: William Hill

"I think with Michael Howard, I just thought he was the only heavyweight politician they had to choose from," he says.

So what does he see when he gazes into his crystal ball for the next 12 months?

"If the odds were agreeable I would take a bet on Gordon Brown not being chancellor by the end of 2004."

Remember, you read it here first (but don't go rushing to the bookies just yet as no one is offering odds on Mr Brown being kicked out of his job yet. We've checked).