The pitfalls of peace talks

Africa's longest running war in Sudan is edging towards a final deal

Peace talks are currently under way in many countries in Africa - but they may sometimes do more harm than good, an international negotiator has warned.

Talks - such as are ongoing in countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Liberia, and Ivory Coast - are usually the only solution towards achieving peace in war-torn countries.

But they may be open to manipulation by groups looking for more time to buy weapons or enhance their status, Stephen Ellis, Africa Programme Director of the International Crisis Group (ICG), told BBC World Service's Africa Live! programme.

"It's certainly not the case to say that peace talks are always successful, and that in any case they can't do any harm," Mr Ellis said.

"I think that's not true - we don't have to look very far to find examples of struggles where, for example, one side - normally when they're losing - uses peace talks as a way of getting a bit of pressure off.

"They use that time to maybe buy new weapons."

Chance of success

The ICG have among them some of the world's foremost diplomats, and the group has observed many peace talks over the years.

Mr Ellis said that sometimes there was a danger that if the balance of the negotiations was not right, there was a risk that, far from helping create peace, they could exacerbate tensions.

"We can also think of examples where some guerrilla group or other, by getting an invitation to peace talks, helps to make them, as it were, respectable, and therefore to legitimise their struggle in a way that's just not helpful," he said

"There are certainly many examples of that.

"I think we have to judge pretty carefully in each case whether we think peace talks are the right thing to do - whether they have a chance of success - on a case by case basis."

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Mr Ellis added that deciding who should and should not attend peace talks was "a very difficult question to answer."

"I think I would immediately want to know what is the legal status of the people.

"Obviously if someone is representing an established government, whether or not we like that person or agree with their politics, we have to say 'well, this person has some kind of status in international law, and that's something concrete'.

"If somebody is representing an organisation that has no official basis - which is the case, of course, very often, with a guerrilla movement or a protest movement of some sort - that doesn't make them illegitimate by any means, but it means that you have to be a little bit careful to think a little bit hard about what you're dealing with.

South Africa success

Mr Ellis said that it was also essential to closely study the individuals doing the talking.

Peace talks brought about democracy in South Africa

"I would want to look at is the person's track record - who are their friends, what are their sources of income.

"And another thing I would want to look at is can this person deliver - in other words, does this person actually have some control over the constituency which they claim to represent."

Mr Ellis said that the most successful African peace talks he had witnessed had been the Codessa negotiations over South Africa, although he himself was not directly involved.

These talks - which paved the way to democracy and the end of Apartheid in 1994 - had been brokered by, amongst others, Professor Washington Okumu.

Professor Okumu had acted to mediate between Nelson Mandela of the ANC, Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi of the Inkatha Freedom Party and FW de Klerk of the National Party, as well as other parties.

Professor Okumu told Africa Live! that the key to the deal had been patience.

"When I was in London, I spent five years holding private consultations with the ANC, the National Party and the various political groups in South Africa," he stated.

"Really, for five years we set the stage for the convening of Codessa."

Professor Okumu then took a back seat for a period, but came back after the talks began to break down.

When the mediation effort failed, he was asked to remain behind, he said.

"Within four days I managed [the deal] between Mandela, Buthelezi and De Klerk."