Analysis: Sri Lanka's uncertain future

By Frances Harrison BBC correspondent in Colombo

The move by President Kumaratunga to seize control of the security apparatus of the country has taken most Sri Lankans completely by surprise.

Kumaratunga - will she be more careful about avoiding a military confrontation?

From many there were gasps of horror when they heard the news - followed by concern about what this unprecedented step will mean for the peace process.

The most immediate worry is whether this will result in some sort of military confrontation with the Tamil Tigers rebels.

They have said they are still committed to the peace process and the country's ceasefire.

But there must be doubts in their minds given there is now a new defence minister - the president herself.

Highly critical

One concern is that a situation might arise at sea - as it has in the past - where the navy gets intelligence about a suspicious boat they believe is smuggling arms to the rebels.

The last time this happened the president was very critical of the ceasefire monitors for informing the Tigers that one of their boats was under surveillance.

The sea seems the most vulnerable part of the truce and the rebels say they told the government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe some time back that if there were another sinking of one of their ships they would seriously reconsider their adherence to the cease fire.

How will the Tamil Tigers react to Kumaratunga as defence minister?

But there is also another school of thought that says since President Kumaratunga will be in charge of defence, the main opposition party which she heads will be engaged in the peace process in a way they were not before.

The argument is that this is a good thing and will make her more careful about avoiding a military confrontation.

There is also now an odd situation where Prime Minister Wickramasinghe's supporters are left rather uncertain about what to do in his absence.

He issued a statement whose tone seemed to be - "wait till I come back and remain calm".

For those in the state run media who now have to decide whether to submit to the takeover by the president's men, the prime minister's words have hardly been morale boosting.

He has left people to decide what to do on their own and many may now want to wait and see which party gains the upper hand before they take sides.

Perfectly poised

It is not clear what constitutional options the prime minister has at his disposal.

Lawyers say he can argue that in a government of cohabitation the ministers were appointed by the president in consultation with the prime minister and therefore should be removed in the same way.

Some diplomats say it may also be to Ranil Wickramasinghe's advantage that he is in the United States at the time of this crisis. He is perfectly poised to win international support for his efforts for peace.

It has to be remembered that the US Embassy in Colombo responded fairly positively to the Tamil Tigers recent proposals for power sharing.

There is however some fear that the president's decision to suspend parliament for two weeks may push political protest onto the streets.

Cynics say the United National Party of Mr Wickramasinghe may be counting on some unrest which they will hope to blame on the president's action - but it could work both ways.

Then there is the question of whether this crisis will ultimately result in fresh parliamentary elections - which would be the third in four years.

There is also uncertainty about the public reaction to the president's move which she has so far justified on the grounds of national security.

The government had been planning a populist budget and the stock exchange had reached new highs even if the peace dividend was yet to be felt in everyone's pockets.

Elections would be an uncertain prospect and one Sri Lanka can ill afford so frequently.