Political egg needed from golden goose

Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

If you were strolling through west Belfast in recent days, you might be under the impression that fresh Stormont Assembly elections have already been called.

Sinn Fein has erected a series of giant posters of Gerry Adams at various prime spots. When it comes to elections, republicans insist it's a matter of when - not whether - they will take place.

However, there remains the small question of reaching a deal on the linked questions of IRA disarmament and the stability of any future executive.

The decision by Tony Blair to invite just the Ulster Unionists and Sinn Fein to Downing Street to discuss the outstanding difficulties with him and Bertie Ahern might have made sense in terms of practical arbitration of a dispute.

However, it put some noses mightily out of joint, principally those of the SDLP. They responded by snubbing a belated offer of a meeting with the prime minister in the margins of a European summit meeting in Brussels.

Both governments clearly want to prevent the contacts between Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists dragging on

At Brussels, the taoiseach introduced everyone to a new deadline. He said that if he and Tony Blair did not make a breakthrough this coming Wednesday, 22 October, they would be - in his words - "goosed".

Quite what that means, only Mr Ahern knows. Technically the governments have a week longer to play with than the taoiseach suggests.

'Break down'

If assembly elections are to be held, say, on Thursday 27 November, then the secretary of state would not have to make an announcement until Wednesday 30 October.

However, both governments clearly want to prevent the contacts between Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists dragging on, and would like to see a rapid series of confidence-building moves on all sides kicking in within the course of the next week.

If the peace process goose lays a golden egg, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern will head to Northern Ireland to urge voters to give the "new deal" a fair wind.

What could prove less helpful from Sinn Fein's perspective is the re-emergence of the civil war within Ulster Unionism

If the talks break down, we will be back in potential "election without a deal" territory - sombre news which is more likely to be announced by Paul Murphy in the House of Commons.

While the details of the behind-the-scenes negotiations are still veiled in secrecy, it's clear that the question of devolving policing and justice powers has loomed large.

Speaking on BBC Radio Ulster's Inside Politics programme, the Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble did not rule out the transfer of these sensitive powers within two years, nor the possibility of a Sinn Fein minister eventually taking over responsibility for policing or justice.

'Refuse to endorse'

All this is contingent - in Mr Trimble's mind - on an end to IRA paramilitary activity. But the comments will probably be viewed as helpful by republicans.

What could prove less helpful from Sinn Fein's perspective is the re-emergence of the civil war within Ulster Unionism, raising fresh questions over Mr Trimble's ability to deliver in any future assembly.

The Ulster Unionist leader declined to answer questions about whether he will take action against those three MPs who remain outside his parliamentary group.

He could, for example, refuse to endorse the two MPs, Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside, who have been selected as UUP assembly candidates.

Some of Mr Trimble's supporters believe he has no alternative but to face down the continuing rebellion within his own ranks.

However, the sceptics could hold the unionist balance of power in a new assembly whether they are inside or outside the party.

So, in the longer term, taking action against them could prove fraught with danger.