Speculation rife over IRA move

By Brian Rowan
BBC Northern Ireland security editor

In Northern Ireland, the peace process is fast approaching another of those points on the road when the IRA will be expected to say and do something.

And, as that moment nears, there are suggestions of a statement declaring the "war" over and reports too that Canadian General John de Chastelain might be able to reveal some of his decommissioning secrets.

It is the usual speculation ahead of the real thing - that point in all of the negotiations since the Good Friday Agreement when the IRA's actual words are delivered through its spokesman "P O'Neill".

Reports have suggested the IRA is about to declare its "war over"

There is nothing at the moment to suggest that the IRA will utter the words: "The war is over", and nothing to suggest any dramatic change in the way it has handled the issue of decommissioning.

Indeed, Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams has warned the two governments that they need to have a sense of what is "do-able, possible and realisable".

According to one source, this is Adams striking a cautionary note and telling the British Government that, in terms of what it expects from the IRA, the "bar is too high".

The last time the IRA spoke on the peace process was back in the spring.

Then it said it was "resolved to see the complete and final closure of this conflict", and was "determined to ensure that our activities, disciplines and strategies will be consistent with this".

Gerry Adams boiled it all down when he said there would be no activities which would undermine in any way the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement.

It is accepted that the IRA is not going to disappear overnight.

All of this, back then, was not good enough to push the Ulster Unionist leader, David Trimble, back into the power-sharing government with Sinn Fein.

And, in the latest political effort to restore devolution in Northern Ireland, it is Mr Trimble and his unionist colleagues who will have to be persuaded of the IRA's peaceful intentions.

Having recently seen off another internal challenge from Jeffrey Donaldson, there is a view that Mr Trimble is in a better position now to do business.

The unionists and republicans are once again involved in private talks with the British and Irish governments and are trying to find a political formula, which to quote one source, will allow all participants to "cross the Rubicon together".

Republicans will tell you this is not a single issue negotiation on the future of the IRA.

Yes, the IRA will be expected to make a significant contribution to any new deal, but Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness will not discuss the specifics of that until they know what is in the wider political frame.

Having twice postponed elections, is the British Government prepared to commit to a firm election date in the autumn?

What is David Trimble's position on re-forming the power-sharing executive beyond any election?

What are the next steps in the demilitarisation process?

And, when will policing and justice powers be transferred to Northern Ireland politicians?

David Trimble has been holding talks with Gerry Adams

The latter is something which is crucial to the internal republican debate and is key to Sinn Fein agreeing to endorse and participate in the new policing arrangements in Northern Ireland.

If we get to the point of a deal, there will be further IRA decommissioning.

General de Chastelain is due back in Northern Ireland in mid-October and could be back sooner if needed.

There is nothing to suggest any dramatic changes in the process used to put "arms beyond use".

Certainly, there is nothing to indicate that the wish of some unionists for decommissioning to be filmed or witnessed by others outside the de Chastelain Commission, will be granted.

The backdrop to the latest negotiations has been a very quiet summer in Northern Ireland, and that will be something positive for the new International Monitoring Commission to report on.

Road map

Part of its task is to be a ceasefire watchdog, and its first report will be crucial in setting the tone for any new deal.

If there is a deal, then there will be statements from Gerry Adams and the IRA, and the two governments are hoping these will definitively and explicitly state an end to all IRA activities.

In terms of the serious business that still has to be done, one source spoke of a beginning rather than end to the negotiations, and the period between now and the end of September is seen as crucial.

It is accepted that the IRA is not going to disappear overnight.

We have seen the road map pointing towards its end.

When the Good Friday Agreement is fully implemented along with the commitments made in the British-Irish joint declaration earlier this year, then the IRA is prepared to hold a so-called "army convention" to decide on its future.

This is a future in which it is hoped that republicans will finally abandon "armed struggle" in favour of "political struggle".

In the meantime, the IRA has to be less obvious, and any hint of any violent intention will scupper any hope there is of an autumn breakthrough in Northern Ireland's stalled political process.