Reluctant travellers along hard road

By Paul Reynolds
BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

Some Palestinians have dismissed the prisoner release as 'a joke'

The release of Palestinian prisoners by Israel will probably keep the roadmap to peace open for the time being but the travellers are reluctant and the road is long and hard.

It is not clear at this moment whether the map will be furled up in due course and hostilities will resume as before.

The fact is that obligations by both sides under the roadmap have yet to be fulfilled since each is blaming the other for not doing enough.

The Palestinian Authority should be cracking down on the militants, not just saving a ceasefire - Israel should have frozen all settlement activity and should be withdrawing from all the West Bank towns and cities it occupied last year.

But the roadmap declares itself to be "performance based" and can only make progress "through reciprocal steps", so at any stage, progress can be halted. And it is painfully slow.

'Road' diversions

The parties have got themselves into a position in which they are arguing about issues which are not actually mentioned in the roadmap but which have now become linked to it. This diverts them from the journey.

Security barrier: Another obstacle to roadmap success

Yossi Beilin, the Israeli politician who did so much to get the Oslo agreement with the Palestinians, told the BBC: "These are red herrings. This is not the core of the matter."

The prisoner release is one such issue. It has become important since it is tied to the ceasefires declared by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah and the al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades. The three-month ceasefire by the first two groups expires at the end of the month, so its extension or otherwise is obviously going to be a key moment.

If any one of these groups starts attacking Israel or Israelis again, then Israel will react and the map will be rolled up.

Palestinian power struggle

A power struggle between moderate and extremist Palestinians has yet to be played out and on that may depend the future of the process.

Sharon is not serious about implementing the road map Yasser Arafat

And there is a certain amount of rhetoric going on concerning the release, so sorting out whether this is simply covering a disappointment or signalling a real crisis is not easy to determine.

For example, the Palestinians are dismissing the release as a "joke", to use Yasser Arafat's phrase. "Sharon is not serious about implementing the road map," he said. The Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has cancelled a meeting with the Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

'Smallest fry'

It is true that, as the Israeli newspaper Haaretz pointed out, many of the prisoners are "the smallest fry".

Many of them were due to be set free soon anyway. "The government held back on making far-reaching gestures to the Palestinian Authority," said Haaretz commentator Amos Harel.

Israel is making gestures and in response is getting complaints Gideon Meir Israeli Foreign Ministry

However, it can also be said that the Palestinians have scored something of a tactical victory by getting any releases.

Israel meanwhile feels that it is not getting the credit it is due. Gideon Meir, deputy director-general of the foreign ministry said: "Israel is making gestures and in response is getting complaints."

Security barrier

Another problem has arisen over the security barrier Israel is erecting. This is not mentioned in the map either.

President Bush is unhappy about it but is sending mixed signals from the sidelines. He disappointed Palestinians by appearing to back away from putting pressure on Mr Sharon during recent talks at the White House.

But since then, the Americans have indicated that they might reduce their aid to Israel if construction of the barrier is continued.

At least we have not reached the stage reached in 1806 when William Pitt, contemplating the military campaigns of Napoleon declared: 'Roll up that map; it will not be wanted these 10 years.'

Mr Bush has called it a "problem" since it goes across the so-called green line marking the borders as they were in 1967 and which the Palestinians want to form the borders of their new state.

As always in the Middle East, it is probably better to assume the worst unless convinced by events.

But at least we have not reached the stage reached in 1806 when William Pitt, contemplating the military campaigns of Napoleon declared: "Roll up that map; it will not be wanted these 10 years."