Lt General David McKiernan

A stark warning from the Commander of coalition forces in Iraq. He told us "combat operations have not concluded...the war certainly isn't over"

It is now more than three months since George Bush announced that major combat operations were over in Iraq, but since then almost as many US personnel have been killed as died during the official conflict and soldiers are still coming under attack from forces loyal to Saddam.

The memory of America's prolonged war in Vietnam is still fresh for many Americans, concerned that the US will become trapped in Iraq for years.

In all there are a hundred and sixty thousand coalition forces in the country under the command of Lieutenant General David McKiernan. Our Diplomatic Editor Mark Urban travelled to his headquarters in Kuwait.

MARK URBAN:
This is the place where the ground war against Iraq was launched, the command post of the US third army in Kuwait. There are still almost 200,000 American troops in the area, part of a war which the people in charge here consider goes on.

LIEUTENANT GENERAL DAVID McKIERNAN:
(COALITION LAND FORCES COMMANDER, IRAQ)
Combat operations have not concluded in Iraq. As our President said, major combat operations have concluded. He didn't say the war is over. The war certainly isn't over. The campaign continues.

URBAN:
Lt General David McKiernan drew up the plan to take Iraq and was in command of the ground forces that did it. The advance to Baghdad in 16 days was highly successful. But did even McKiernan's blue print fit the old military adage that no plan survives contact with the enemy?

McKIERNAN:
That is an old adage. The flip side of that adage though is, if your plan changes as you cross the line of departure, maybe you didn't have a very good plan to begin with. I think we had a pretty good plan. In fact, our fight, almost all the way up to Baghdad, was pretty much as planned.

URBAN:
What about the threats to the line of communication? At the time there was quite a bit of comment that Nasiriyah or Najaf, that more troops were having to be used to secure those, and that that caused a rethink of sorts as you were going?

McKIERNAN:
It caused not a rethink of the scheme of manoeuvre, or fires. It caused a constant, what we call, a running estimate, in the tempo of the attack.

URBAN:
Are you saying, in essence, it slowed you down by a day or two. It took that little bit longer for you to get to Baghdad as a result of that?

McKIERNAN:
Well, I think, if we are talking just sheer driving, and moving right through Iraqi military formations, it caused us to have to deal with the enemy in those urban areas for a matter of days before we could generate all the combat power that I thought was necessary to continue the attack, to isolate and then secure the city of Baghdad.

URBAN:
The toppling of Saddam in such rapid order created its own challenges, notably the implosion of Iraqi security forces and emergence of a guerrilla resistance.

McKIERNAN:
This campaign was so decisive, was so effective and was so fast, that some of our planning thoughts, that we might have surrendered Iraqi military formations, that we could quickly reintergrate into an Iraqi environment, or a police force that we might continue to use with some changes in leadership, those did not materialise. Because when the regime fell the institutions of Iraq went with it. And the Ba'athist leadership which was pervasive across every function in Iraq fled. So you are starting almost with a blank piece of paper. And the military then must transition to not only combat operations, but they become the de facto, immediate authority in Iraq.

URBAN:
When you look at the number of soldiers that you have lost since May 1st, it is clearly a personal affect it has on you, what is the professional one as well?

McKIERNAN:
On a personal level, whenever a service member, of any nation, is a casualty, it affects you. You try to figure out what do you do differently? What do you do better in the future? How do you adapt to try to limit those casualties?

URBAN:
If had you to write to the parents of a soldier who had died in these operations recently what would you say to them that their son had died for?

McKIERNAN:
Their son, or daughter, and it has been both, have died for the accomplishment of our national security objectives in this campaign. They have died for taking a regime out of power that was a threat to my nation, to your nation. And it was certainly a threat to this region. It was an oppressive regime, for over three decades and the people of Iraq. So they did not die in vain.

URBAN:
How do you think the environment would change if today or tomorrow we heard that Saddam Hussein had been captured or killed?

McKIERNAN:
My personal opinion is that at some time we must account for Saddam Hussein. I think that will be a... It won't end any degree of resistance in Iraq, but it will certainly be a necessary ingredient, as the Iraqi people look to the future.

URBAN:
So with even the fate of Saddam won't end resistance, how will the US Army sustain 150,000 man commitment. The system is already showing signs of strain. What about the keys to change?

McKIERNAN:
Well, I think, certainly if the US Army presence were to remain at that number, for an indefinite period of time, it would put some degree of stress, as it already has, on forces available. That's, that goes without saying. But I will tell you that the intent is that as Iraqi institutions are rebuilt, that should intuitively lead you to believe that the force levels could go down from coalition forces. Also, as there is a more multi-national participation in this campaign, that intuitively will also lead you to believe that US force presence can be reduced in the future. How fast, and in terms of what capabilities that happens, I think is still to be determined.

URBAN:
It has got to come down, hasn't it, because your acting chief of staff, John Keane, has said beyond this year, this level of US deployment has to be reduced?

McKIERNAN:
It will be extremely challenging if this force level were to remain there indefinitely.

URBAN:
What is the feeling you get when you are talking to your commanders of your subordinate units, about reenlistment, other indicators like that of whether your soldiers are happy?

McKIERNAN:
I think it depends on the individual.

URBAN:
Overall though you must have a sense of where you are at?

McKIERNAN:
Well, no I don't. Remember now, you are asking me some policy things and some sourcing domestic things that I'm forward deployed, I'm the operational commander.

URBAN:
But field commanders tend to watch for certain indicators, whether their people are happy...

McKIERNAN:
And we tend, and I do in particular, love to go and talk to soldiers and junior leaders. I think that's an issue that Secretary Rumsfeld on down, we are all dealing with what is the right global stance. What are the right policies where we can sustain this war on terrorism, which will be a long campaign, over the coming years. It is a burden. It is a challenge on families when the spouse is separated from the family for extended periods of time. I mean that is to nobody's surprise. Does that create challenges in retention? It does. But, I think, thus far, I don't think we have retention problems in the United States Army. But its something we have got to look at, or we might have retention problems.

URBAN:
The challenges then are clearly understood here, as are the timings. For the Americans it's vital for a corner to be turned in stabilising Iraq during the coming 11 to 12 months. What are your, if you like, best and worse case scenarios for the next year?

McKIERNAN:
Well, first, I don't know if we envision the exact same force levels a year from now. I don't know. I think conditions will dictate that. First, in my mind, there is no possibility, zero possibility, that there will be a resurgence of a Ba'athist-led regime in Iraq. That will not happen. I think the amount of time that is it will take to reform Iraqi institutions, have Iraqi local and national governance, will in a large degree depend upon the will of the Iraqi people. I think there are signs already where many of them now feel that, number one, they are fed up with these attacks against their own economic infrastructure. Crimes against their own people, not just coalition. And I think, over time, that will create a will to make sure that they are working together for the future of Iraq.

URBAN:
Thank you.

This transcript was produced from the teletext subtitles that are generated live for Newsnight. It has been checked against the programme as broadcast, however Newsnight can accept no responsibility for any factual inaccuracies. We will be happy to correct serious errors.