The real cost of Nepal's strike

By Daniel Lak BBC correspondent in Kathmandu

For three days, an entire country came to a standstill. Nepal's Maoist rebels - three weeks after walking out of peace talks with the government and returning to violent revolution - have successfully demonstrated their political clout in the Himalayan kingdom.

The government put a brave face on things - ministers said the relatively low level of violence showed that the Maoists were losing their ability to attack at will.

The Nepalese are weary of a seven-year war that has killed 8,000 people

Extra security patrols seemed to be effective in Kathmandu and other main towns. Hopeful journalists made much of state-run buses plying the roads and the bravery of a few shopkeepers and business people in staying open.

But the effect of this strike has been devastating, both on the economy and on the morale of Nepalis.

New openness

Just seven months ago, the country erupted in optimism as the Maoists and the government of the day announced simultaneous ceasefires and committed themselves to peace talks.

People in Kathmandu took in the rare sight of Maoist leaders moving openly around the capital, holding press conferences and meeting community leaders.

Nepal's crucial tourist industry has been hard hit

Dr Baburam Bhattarai, the chief Maoist ideologue, even visited the capitalists of the Federation of Nepali Chambers of Commerce and Industry to assure them his group was committed to a market economy.

The mood stayed buoyant even as political stalemate continued between King Gyanendra's handpicked government and the parliamentary political parties.

The parties cast doubt on the validity of any deal obtained during the peace talks as they agitated against the king.

But hope sprung eternal. Nepalis were tired of a war that had cost 8,000 lives in seven years and left their country's economy in tatters.

New bomb campaign

That optimism proved premature last month when the Maoists and the current government - the second appointed by the king since he sacked an elected administration a year ago - were unable to sustain the peace talks.

The rebels started a campaign of bombings and assassinations in Kathmandu and called this general strike.

Economists estimate the cost of such a strike, a bandh in Nepali, at $10m per day. That does not include lost wages by day labourers and people unable to get to work.

The army is well equipped but lacks the manpower to crush the rebels

Crucial tourist bookings were cancelled and those travellers who arrived during the strike had to cope with curfews and non-existent public transport.

The upcoming Hindu festival season, the second most important time of year for tourism, looks set to be overshadowed by fears about the war.

Yet is it really all so bleak? Does a three day paralysis of normal life really show Maoist strength? Or is it simply the resignation of a people habituated to such strike calls and crying out for leadership that can reassure them of a safe, more prosperous future?

Can the king and mainstream political parties get together and form a common front to restart peace talks with the rebels? And are the rebels themselves just using the return to war and general strikes as a way to strengthen their hand in a future negotiations?

Stalemate

Perhaps the main reason to give a hopeful answer to all of these questions is the stark fact that neither the Maoists nor the security forces can win this war militarily anytime soon, if at all.

Patrols and checks increased during the strike

The rebels are battle-hardened and have areas of the countryside under firm control, but they remain poorly armed and the international community - including crucially India - is lining up against them.

The Royal Nepal Army is well equipped and trained but still short of the manpower, weapons and technology required for nationwide operations against the rebels.

Intelligence about Maoist intentions and movements is spotty at best.

This balance of uncertainty can be dangerous. But it can also focus minds on both sides on the reality. Negotiations are the only way to achieve anything that is even remotely beneficial for Nepal.

Hope is about all this Himalayan land has left.