NI election date remains uncertain

Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

Northern Ireland's politicians and civil servants are flicking through their diaries. If the key players reach a deal on IRA acts of completion and the implementation of the two governments' joint declaration when exactly will the Assembly election be?

The 11-plus examinations due on 7 and 21 November have cramped the politicians' options.

Primary schools provide the venues for many polling stations and there is general agreement that it would be unreasonable to ask school principals to play host to the voters one day, then to the examiners the next.

So if - as is traditional - the polling day is a Thursday, that counts out both 6 November and 20 November.

This leaves 13 November and 27 November.

Politicians favour the 13th, because if they have to fight a campaign then they would like to do so as soon as possible.

For pro-Agreement unionists to march into a campaign with any degree of assurance, the IRA would first have to make a substantial disarmament gesture

If canvassers have to go out knocking on voters' doors, they would like to have a bit of daylight to do it in.

Also, the later it gets in the year the more people will want to concentrate on Santa Claus and the less they will want to think about Stormont.

Given that the taoiseach is warning there is not yet even a tentative deal with republicans, however, everything may slip.

One government source told me he was fairly sure there would be an election this year but would put more money on polling day being 4 December than voting going ahead in November.

Either way there is a lot to be completed in a short time.

For pro-Agreement unionists to march into a campaign with any degree of assurance, the IRA would first have to make a substantial disarmament gesture, and republicans would need to provide some form of words which signal an end to IRA paramilitary activity.

Deadlock

It is expected the Ulster Unionists could turn their annual party conference, which takes place on 18 October, into a ruling council meeting which would respond formally to any republican initiative.

If the political ball appears to be rolling, it is important to remember that the prospects for a restoration of the power sharing executive remain far from certain.

David Trimble may have strengthened his position within his party's ruling council, however the chances of him controlling the votes of a majority of unionists in any future Assembly appear slim.

Even if the DUP does not overhaul the Ulster Unionists as the largest unionist grouping, Mr Trimble will not be able to count on the votes of about half a dozen sceptics like Jeffrey Donaldson who will probably win Assembly seats.

This could prove a recipe for deadlock, once again leading to the Assembly failing to elect a first and deputy first minister.

One Machiavellian theory has the outgoing holders of those positions, Messrs Trimble and Durkan, soldiering on in some 'shadow' form if no one else manages to get elected.

The 2003 winter election could become nothing more than an oddity in Northern Ireland's long history of elections

Lord Alderdice held down his job as Presiding Officer on this basis for a long time. But it would be hard to sustain an executive in such a fragile form.

What seems likely then is that even if the election does go ahead in mid November or early December we will eventually be heading for another round of negotiations.

The secretary of state has talked about reviewing the Good Friday Agreement in December. The DUP will no doubt insist that any new talks are not a review, but a root and branch renegotiation.

Whatever they are called the new talks could lead to a more stable, more effective Stormont.

But if they don't, then the 2003 winter election could become nothing more than an oddity in Northern Ireland's long history of elections and Westminster based ministers will have to hunker down for another long period of direct rule.