Lib Dems pull off 'remarkable' feat

by David Cowling BBC political research editor

It would be difficult to argue that there was any ambiguity in the result in Brent East.

It produced the biggest swing to the Lib Dems in a by-election for ten years; Labour's first loss in 15 years; and precious little comfort to the Conservatives.

The scale of the Lib Dem success was truly remarkable.

Sarah Teather, MP for Brent East

They held no council seats in the wards which make up the constituency and had no track record of significant electoral success in any of Brent's three parliamentary constituencies.

Yet they won the seat from a base of 10.6% of the vote at the last general election, pole-vaulting over the Conservatives and then totally demolishing a 45% Labour majority.

During the 2001 general election, few people believed the Lib Dems could hold the 46 seats they won in 1997. But they defied the sceptics and increased their MPs to 52.

'Charmed life'

Since then they have received higher ratings in the opinion polls than in previous years. But Brent East is hardly natural territory for them and they will have to dig in deep if they are to resist the 2.7% swing that Labour needs in order to win it back at the next election.

For Labour there is no disguising the damage that comes from losing one of your safest seats in the country.

If Tony Blair moves from promoting an unpopular war to promoting unpopular policies then his personal ratings may not recover

Tony Blair has led a charmed political life for most of the last decade.

His 1997-2001 government was the first in half a century not to lose a by-election to the Opposition and Labour has dominated the opinion polls for over 10 years.

But in recent months, his ratings on trust among the public have collapsed, many of his MPs are increasingly unhappy with various policies he is pursuing, and the trade unions are threatening to challenge his hold over the party.

Testing times

His biggest test is how he responds to this defeat. Labour's condition is not yet critical, but for the first time in a decade people are beginning to think it could become so.

On the international front he is associated with an increasingly unpopular war.

The real gloom in some Conservative circles is not that the party is standing still but that the speed of their recovery is too slow

In domestic politics, tuition fees are opposed by many in the country as well as within his own party; foundation hospitals and two-tier workforces are also guaranteed to face fierce opposition.

If Tony Blair moves from promoting an unpopular war to promoting unpopular policies then his personal ratings may not recover and the whispers that he is be coming a liability rather than a strength to Labour will increase in volume.

There is some justice in the Conservative claim that Labour voters in Brent East found it easier to vote Lib Dem than Conservative when deciding to give the government a punch on the nose.

Opinion polls

However, the party has to climb an enormous mountain if it is to win the next election - a swing bigger than Labour's in 1997 just to finish up with a majority of one in parliament - and with probably two years to go time is running out for them to prove they can do it.

They are certainly recovering in the monthly opinion polls, but so far to levels of support barely above what they achieved at the last general election.

The real gloom in some Conservative circles is not that the party is standing still but that the speed of their recovery is too slow.

Despite the efforts of both Labour and the Lib Dems, the Brent East by-election will not feature in the history books as some great defeat for the Conservative party.

However, the party needs its "tipping point" - that moment or event when the political climate shifts decisively in its favour.

Clearly, Brent East did not provide it but more worryingly it gave little encouragement that anywhere else would have done so.