Powell 'to quit' signal sparks debate

By Paul Reynolds BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

The US Secretary of State Colin Powell has, according to the Washington Post, decided to step down if President Bush wins a second term in next year's election.

Mr Powell would leave office, it is said, on 21 January 2005, the day after the Presidential inauguration. His deputy Richard Armitage is also reported to have indicated that he would go on the same day.

Powell: Regarded as a moderate in the Bush administration

There has thus opened in Washington a debate as to who might succeed Mr Powell and beyond that, discussion as to the possible direction of American foreign policy during a second Bush term.

Colin Powell, a decisive soldier when he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has always been something of a reluctant politician. The Washington Post says that the main factor in his thinking is not any dismay at Mr Bush's foreign policy but a commitment made to his wife Alma that he would serve for only one term.

It was Mrs Powell who stopped any thoughts he had of running for the Presidency in 2000. Concerned at the personal risks to her husband, she was quoted by author Bob Woodward as saying: "If you run, I'm gone." It appears that her influence is still decisive.

Powell and Armitage have represented the only seriously multilateralist leanings of the administration, as Europeans understand the concept Dr John Chipman, IISS Profile of Colin Powell

A State Department spokesman, Philip Reeker, says there is no basis for the report.

"It must be August", he said.

Observers say that if Colin Powell does indeed depart, it could lead US policy to take less account of the views of others. It was Colin Powell who last summer persuaded Mr Bush to go to the Security Council to try to get backing for action against Iraq.

Dr John Chipman, Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, said: "Obviously Colin Powell and Richard Armitage have represented the only seriously multilateralist leanings of the administration, as Europeans understand the concept. They pay more tribute to the European view than others."

Speculation about successor

Two names are being discussed as successor already. The favourite must be Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush's national security adviser. The other is Paul Wolfowitz, the Deputy Secretary of Defence. No doubt as the debate goes on, other candidates will emerge.

Dr Rice has recently been given special responsibilities for the Middle East, which might be seen as offering her a chance to get experience in the field, something she lacks in the hothouse of Washington.

Her image has been tarnished recently by the confusion surrounding claims that Iraq sought uranium from Niger, but she certainly has the confidence of the President.

Indeed she had it long before he became President and it would not be a huge surprise if Mr Bush felt he wanted her to be Secretary of State. Equally he might want to keep her by his side in White House.

'Ideologue' Wolfowitz

Paul Wolfowitz is widely seen as the intellectual architect of the invasion of Iraq. He pressed for action immediately after the attacks of 11 September, so the suspicion among some is that he would press for similar policies when confronting other problems such as North Korea and Iran.

I can't see how Powell restrained anything and if he did try, he failed Glenda Jackson, British Labour MP

Dr Chipman of the IISS said however that Mr Wolfowitz was "an ideologue but also an ideas person who loves to throw up a debate. He is not a person of dogma. He has served in the State Department before and is more sensitive to international concerns than is sometimes thought. He is an internationalist if not a multilateralist."

The Washington Post speculated that Mr Wolfowitz could take over as National Security Adviser from Dr Rice since he is considered "more of a strategic thinker than a manager."

Left wing critics of the Bush administration are not convinced either by Colin Powell's moderation or the effect his departure would have.

British Labour MP Glenda Jackson, who has called for Tony Blair's resignation as British Prime Minister told News Online: "I can't see how Powell restrained anything and if he did try, he failed. He only turned to the UN because the US and UK wanted to validate a decision to invade which had already been taken.

"I can't see that his going would make much difference. It might be that the administration has learned from its mistake and would put in a more openly committed ideologue."