Lib Dem victory: A warning for Labour?

The Liberal Democrats have snatched one of Labour's safest seats with a victory in a key north London by-election.

Sarah Teather won the Brent East poll by more than 1,100 votes, marking Labour's first loss of a Commons seat in a by-election for 15 years.

With a swing of 29% from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, it is being described by commentators as one of the most stunning turnarounds in British electoral history.

Commentators are linking the Labour defeat with Tony Blair's decision to go to war with Iraq, and anger among the party's traditional voters over the involvement of the private sector in public services.

Is the result a serious warning to the government? Is the tide turning against the Labour Party or is this simply a protest vote?

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The following comments reflect the balance of views we have received:

This debate is now closed. Read your comments below.

Your reaction:

We are being ruled by what is, in effect, a coalition, the NewLabCons, and are all of us, as a result, are disenfranchised. The same appears to be the case in that other great pillar of 'democracy', America. My vote is normally to abstain from voting as a protest. This time however I will vote LibDem, partly to recognise their stance against a criminal war in Iraq and partly to break this cosy coalition.
Alan Murphy, UK

They enjoy the luxury of opposition, being able to propose policies when they know they'll never be in a position to deliver them Graham, England

All governments see dramatic losses of seats in mid-term by-elections. The question is whether it'll be like the ones of the Thatcher years (where the Tories easily regained seats lost) or the Major years (where the Lib Dems held the ones they'd captured). One thing is certain - the Lib Dems won't hold Brent East. Neither will Labour regain it. Falling population in that part of London means that Brent East disappears at the next election- it will be split between Paul Boateng's Brent South and Glenda Jackson's Hampstead & Highgate. One reason for the Lib Dems' victory is that they enjoy the luxury of opposition, being able to propose policies when they know they'll never be in a position to deliver them. As students in Scotland will know all too well, the Lib Dems will U-turn on any "non-negotiable" policy (e.g. scrapping tuition fees) in return for ministerial Mondeos.
Graham, England

At by-elections people vote to express their emotions. At general elections they vote to protect their interests.
John Lawrence, uk

This could be a curtain-raiser for the LibDems who have yet to come up with policies at the national level. The poor polling turn-out with every election also shows the slow death of democracy because of because of increasing voter apathy towards politics and politicians.
Saravan, UK

All I can say is that Kennedy has done a remarkable job of keeping low profile the fact that the Lib Dems are fundamentally pro euro and anti monarchy. I guess opposition is all you can ever hope for when you take those issues into account.
Bob J, UK

Lib/Dems shouldn't attach too much weight to this result. Yes it's a warning to Labour but their usual supporters voted Lib/Dem only as a protest and because they couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory. It will be back to square one next time.
Gary Keith, Britain

Stealth taxes on top of rates, no increase in Personal Allowance, VAT on children's clothes, Fuel Tax, Road Charging, increase in utility bills all against a background of massive waste of money in Iraq. Where is the cheaper oil? Looks like Liberal land slide. All they need to do is support the Countryside Alliance and speak the truth and they are home and dry with the tide out for the Tory party.
David R. Williams, UK

Any party who runs on a "No taxes and free everything for all" platform is bound to be popular in certain quarters. They seize whatever wind is blowing at the moment and do so because they'll never have to make the difficult choices their goofy positions will require of them. Their success has come from being a 'back-seat' government.
Mary, USA

It is time for the government of the day to introduce proportional representation. That should be Blair's final mark on history.
Richard Lafferty, UK

Those in the UK and elsewhere who supported Bush and Blair's invasion of Iraq will of course belittle the Brent East vote against Labour. Eventually they will have to accept that the bitterness felt against Blair for ignoring the opinion of the majority of the UK public will not fade away and he will be made to pay, unless of course real WMDs are found in Iraq. But then, with the coalition's 1400-strong weapons inspection team having just given up looking, it doesn't look good for Blair.
John Farmer, UK

Their tactics are to tell the supporters of the two other parties what they want to hear Frank Colarusso, Scotland

How many times have the Liberal Democrats won by-elections and we been told that this was a great change in British politics? They are good at winning these contests because they can gather votes from the dissatisfied of the other parties. Their tactics are to tell the supporters of the two other parties what they want to hear. The trouble is that during the general election their policies come under scrutiny and they cannot get away with the sleazy tactics that they use in by-elections. I am a Blair supporter, all those people who say that they are labour supporters and moan about Blair should remember that he has won two landslide victories for Labour; these people who criticise live in Alice in wonderland country and if Labour had followed their policies we would still be in opposition. They are the ones that should go.
Frank Colarusso, Scotland

Good lesson for Lab, but would they ever learn?!
Hussein, London

What a hoot! You Brits crack me up! I'd always heard that the Brits were fickle when it came to politics. Now I see just how true that is. Hello people; one district election means nothing.
James W, USA

James W (USA) fails to see the significance of the Brent East by-election. In the past, Liberals had the occasional surprise by-election victory but that was on the back of polls of about 12% and a dozen MPs. Now the Liberal Democrats consistently have over 25% of the vote in elections and nearly 60 MPs. This is part of a trend against what used to be the major parties that will lead to the permanent destruction of the Tories and Labour's transition to a European-style Social Democratic party. All of which makes British politics about to become extremely interesting. No wonder some Americans don't understand it.
Tom, UK

It is common for governments to lose mid-term by-elections, and often on large swings. The results of individual by-elections can be misleading, however. A more accurate test of public opinion will be next year's European Parliament elections.
Quentin Hawkins, UK

I think this marks the beginning of the end for Tony Blair and his absolute disregard for the people of this country. And it's long overdue.
Jeannette, UK

There is no viable opposition to Labour Simon Moore, EU

A fantastic result, and yes, it's a warning for Labour, but ultimately it will not make any difference.
There is no viable opposition to Labour (the Tories offer nothing sensible, and however good the Lib Dems are, most people will never vote for them because "they never get in" - well, if you don't vote for them they won't ever get in will they?) Therefore, more and more people will simply not vote at all. While this situation continues Labour will continue to win general elections.
In the last election only 59% of people turned out to vote, and Labour won with about 44% of the vote (i.e. only 25% of the UK population actually voted for them!).
In the next general election I think the turnout will be even lower, probably only about 50%. But Labour will still get about 40% of those votes, and so will win again. Even though only about 20% of the population actually expressed support for them!
Democratic? I don't think so!
Simon Moore, EU

Don't be fooled into thinking changing policies and suddenly acting like a labour government will do it - there is too much bitterness towards Blair to recover with him running things.
Dave Elliot, UK

It is people like James UK who put democracy at great risk by not exercising his right to vote. A warning to politicians throughout the Western World. People who stay at home on voting day rank next to Lemming.
John, France, ex UK

What has the two-party system given us? Nothing. It's major flaw is the lack of debate we get when one party becomes too powerful. It happened in the 1980s with the Poll Tax Tories, it's happening again now with Attack Iraq Labour. A Lib Dem victory is good news - two parties is never enough.
Kevin Elliott, Oxford, UK

In the turbulent lives of politicians in British Columbia, governments have a tendency to be voted out, rather than voted in. Perhaps this by-election is a foreshadowing of things yet to come.
William Sutton, British Columbia, Canada

The tide is turning against Labour and will continue. New Labour is now seen as the party of spin. Tony Blair is not trusted and is now nothing more than a liability. The party needs to re-examine its priorities and get rid of the spin and hypocrisy that now appears to be its trademark. You cannot fool all of the people all of the time!
Maxine, UK

A fantastic, and a most brilliant win for the Liberal Democrats when they won the north London seat. I fear however, that the Liberal Democratic party's win might be short lived, as history teaches us, history as a bad habit of repeating itself. But, I cannot foresee the Liberal Democratic party being strong enough or popular enough to form the next English government. I only see a return to the bad old days of a conservative led government getting back into power yet again.
Allan Damien Goodwin, Scotland

I think when Labour swept into power most people were expecting a centre left government. Ironically they are more right than the Conservatives they disposed of, and as such will only continue to lose ground to the Lib Dems who have positioned themselves left of them.
Rahul, UK

The Lib Dems are still not a credible alternative to the Labour party. There is no credible alternative and this is why those who bothered to vote voted against Labour not for the Lib Dems.
This country is screaming out for new direction and leadership and not one of the political parties of this country offers anything the people can believe in. Blair is far to arrogant to listen to the people, and his governments popularity has fallen to a new low. Now is the time when a new force could come to the fore, but could this come from? Ken Clark might have done it but where is he?
Martin Boulger, UK

Labour has lost its creditability with Tony Blair as leader. The man who took us to war against the wishes of a lot of people and indeed a lot of his own MPs using "intelligence" which at best was flawed. His cronyism is also very suspect; he has lost the trust of an enormous amount of people and must go or be deposed. I am not a political animal and I have no idea who will probably govern the country after the next election - but somehow I don't think it will be Labour.
Bill, Scotland

Get real. This is a mid-term blip. Come the general election, people will be given some facts...lowest unemployment for 25 years, lowest interest rates for 40 years, a minimum wage policy (even if the rate is too low), a tax-credits scheme which means real gains for the low paid. Not too bad for this "terrible arrogant government". Do you really want to trust your future to the naive, untested Lib Dems or the truly scary IDS? If you think Tony Blair is too close to the Yanks, just watch the Tories!
Peter, UK

We should have lots of parties so that elections will be meaningful again James, London, UK

Why stop at 3 parties? Labour and Conservatives are virtually identical. I've stopped voting years ago. There is no point. But the people don't want either large party. We should have lots of parties so that elections will be meaningful again. We need to have social democracy again, taxes to pay for education, health, pensions, student grants. Maybe we'll become the envy of Europe once again.
James, London, UK

Perhaps it is time to give someone else a chance! Why do we vote with our hearts mid term and like sheep at general election time?
Graham, UK

I think this result from Brent East shows that the people in the UK don't trust Labour after the Iraq crisis.
Ron, Uk

Whilst for the Government not to listen to the anxiety this protest vote represents would be foolish, the British people should also take time to value and seek to preserve the most effective administration since Attlee! We must not loose Blair.
Tony, UK

The ballot box appears to be the only effective method of influencing Tony Blair. For most people, until Tony Blair leaves the political scene, the only electoral option is to vote NOT Labour rather than NEW Labour. There really isn't a viable political alternative to Labour in this country at the moment and I'm sure Labour would win an election clearly without Blair.
JohnM, LyneMeads,UK

I think it was fairly inevitable that the liberal democrats would start to do well sooner or later. They are the only party left who have yet to prove that they are unfit to govern.
T.N, United Kingdom

It's a huge warning, but I would term it a desperation vote. People got sick of the Conservatives. Now they're getting sick of New Labour - who have been far more ruthless and controversial than the Tories ever were ("Hi, we're cuddly New Labour, but unfortunately we've got to kick you whilst you're still down. However we're really sorry about it.") Where else do you go? You fire a warning shot by voting Lib Dem.
John L, UK

My advice is "Tony: the people are speaking - LISTEN. Peter Sutton, Australia

I have not come across the word arrogance nor the phrase 'total contempt' as reason for this loss. I am a Labour man through and through, but not at any price. My advice is "Tony: the people are speaking... LISTEN.
Peter Sutton, Australia (Ex pom)

This is a vote against Blair. Let us have a proper socialist running the Labour party. The electorate will then have a real choice between Socialism and Conservatism.
Steve, England

Yes, a warning for Labour, but an even bigger warning for the Conservatives, who took just 17% of the vote. Perhaps "The Quiet Man" will become "The Quit Man". Had Ken Clarke been voted Tory leader, it would be very different today. Heck, he even opposed the war.
Mark Fulford, UK

I'm a Tony Blair supporter and I think this result is positive in two ways. Firstly I hope it reminds Tony not to take too much for granted, and secondly it bolsters the only credible opposition party we have in this country.
Jon, UK

There was a time when the Liberal Party may have been a "parking place" for those unhappy with the performance of the Labour or Conservative government in power. However, I would be surprised if this was wholly the case today. When discussing politics with colleagues, the number who see the Liberal Democrats as a credible and realistic alternative to the conservatism of New Labour and the Tory party is growing. The country is still recovering from the years of Tory power and is now reeling from being taken into an illegal and un-warranted war with Iraq by Labour. Should we really limit ourselves to those two parties because modern history tells us those are our two choices? Perhaps the Liberal by-election victory does mean nothing, but I do hope that in a general election people remember that we are fortunate enough not to have a two horse race any more.
Philippa, UK

The fact is that the so-called "third party" are now more in touch with public opinion than either of the other two Toby Smith, UK

Congratulations to Ms Teather. Mr Duguid may be right in saying that the Lib Dems have been a "temporary parking place" for disaffected voters for a long while, but not in safe Labour constituencies where they have always come third. The fact is that the so-called "third party" are now more in touch with public opinion than either of the other two. Furthermore, they have always been by far the most united of the three. I believe they will be the main party of opposition within 10 years. You certainly can have two left-of-centre parties as the two largest in a parliament - it is the case in many European countries! People don't tend to vote along "left-right" lines any more, but along more pragmatic lines.
Toby Smith, UK

This is a huge body blow for the Labour Party (and may be the beginning of the middle of the end for Tony. When people protest vote they generally do so by voting for the third party - that is the case here. There was no protest vote against the Conservative Party in a seat where it would have been very difficult for them to make significant gains. When examined alongside Local Election results and latest opinion polls, it is obvious that the problem at the moment, from the voters perspective, is with the Labour Party.
Martin Curtis, England

As a resident of Brent East, I voted Lib Dem mainly due to the fact that my local councillor (Carol Shaw) has defected from the Tories to Lib Dem's after 16 years. She is an excellent local councillor and I basically followed her. I've never been a Labour voter but in a general election I would vote for Tony Blair as I think he's an honest and decent man and we're lucky to have him as our Prime Minister.
Paul O'Hagan, Brondesbury Park, Brent East

This is not simply a backlash about the Iraq war. This is about the Labour Party's consistent failure to deliver what they promised when they were voted into power. Our public services are still dreadfully inefficient and costly. Labour's majority is too large to be overcome at the next election; but Blair should take this result as a strong warning.
Steven, UK

This is a protest vote, but that does not mean that the tide might not be turning against this incompetent government. But who to vote for? The Conservatives still can't get their act together. And I'll believe the Liberal Democrats will break through only when someone can tell me what they actually stand for.
Alastair, UK

Yes it could be a warning to Labour, but I would say it's an even bigger warning to the Tories to get their act together.
Andrea Moxon, UK

It's a meaningless protest vote, that will have no significance at the next election. Until the Tories rid themselves of their ineffective leadership and start to present policies that appeal to the disaffected middle classes, we are doomed to yet another term from this dreadful government. However, bad as Blair is, at least he isn't Gordon Brown ....
Martin, UK

I don't think people would seriously consider the Lib Dems as a national alternative to the two other parties; locally however, it's feasible. Politics in this country died a few years ago when people realised that it truly doesn't matter how they feel or how they vote as this government have no intention of taking note of either.
Nick, UK

No money for the health service. No money for education, transport, increased pensions. Plenty of money though for an illegal conflict in a foreign country, where no weapons of mass destruction are to be found....It's the war, stupid!
John Christopher, UK

Congratulations to Sarah Teather but unfortunately apathy has also won S Yim, Brent, UK

The strongest warning arising from this by-election is not just for the government but for politics in general. A turn out of 36% is pitifully bad, especially since this by-election was covered nationally. Not even war seems to be able to move people into the polling stations. Congratulations to Sarah Teather but unfortunately apathy has also won.
S Yim, Brent, UK

I was a lifetime Labour voter and party member. I left the party several years ago now because of Blair's policies. I am appalled by the arrogance of this man who can lie, spin and even risk worsening the terrorism risk by taking us into an illegal war against Iraq. His domestic policies are no better - privatisation by another name. Politicians complain of voter apathy. This voter is apoplectic. If the Lib-Dems offer an alternative, anywhere to the left of New Labour (which is not difficult) then people will vote for them. Blair is on his way out.
Dave, UK

How can Labour chiefs blame this defeat on Labour supporters staying at home? Surely 'supporters' would have turned up to vote? Hopefully, this will be the beginning of the end for this dreadful, arrogant government.
Rob, UK

They are the party of protest, not of power Adam Duguid, UK

I would be very careful before reading too much into this result. The Liberals have been a temporary parking place for disaffected voters ever since Orpington in 1963, yet there by-election successes have by and large not been translated into General Election gains. Their long term hope must be to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition party, but I cannot see how this could ever happen. How could you have two left of centre parties challenging for government with no centre right alternative? Ultimately, the Liberals cannot deliver because they are an opportunistic party which jumps on any passing bandwagon to win votes. If the difficult choices of government or even opposition came their way they would quickly disintegrate as their is little to unite them. They are the party of protest, not of power.
Adam Duguid, UK

Of course it not a protest vote. It's the realisation that the Lib Dems are a credible alternative to the see-saw of Tory/Labour rhetoric. They have filled the natural void created by the shift to the right of both the "major" parties and people are waking up to the fact that they are the only party to truly address the issues concerning ALL the people. Tony Blair has abandoned his supporters and the Tories have let everyone down. Watch this space - the Lib Dems will be the next opposition, then the next Government.
Jeff, UK

I suspect that this is just a foretaste of things to come. I am not the only Labour supporter to be angry with this Government for it's support of the Iraq invasion.
Michael Houlsby, Portsmouth, UK