'Fragile' process poses problems

By Martina Purdy BBC Northern Ireland political correspondent

Prime Minister Tony Blair has left for a summer holiday at Cliff Richard's mansion, with accusations from Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness ringing in his ears.

The Mid Ulster MP claimed Mr Blair had been mesmerised by divisions in the Ulster Unionist Party, a sign of republican frustration that the process looks set to remain stalled, despite efforts to get it back on track.

Tony Blair called for a swift return to devolved government

Mr Blair said he wanted to return to devolution as soon as possible, as the Northern Ireland political process was "too fragile" without it.

It's an accurate assessment of the state of the process.

The real question - which no one can yet answer with any certainty - is just how fragile David Trimble's leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party is.

Will he survive beyond the next few months? And if he doesn't, what happens next?

The divisions within the Ulster Unionist Party are certainly deepening.

What once appeared to be a clear cut battle between two factions has suddenly become more complicated.

In addition to the pro-Trimble and pro-Donaldson wings, a third pro-party wing has been emerging.

Some members falling into this group have been supporters of Mr Trimble.

A one-time supporter of Mr Trimble recently said: "I wouldn't want to be the one telling him he has to go. I think David and Jeffrey should both step aside.

"David Trimble has had a good run. I think we need a new leader."

Comments like these are giving hope to the Donaldson camp, and might explain the Lagan Valley MP's insistence last month that he wanted to restore devolution, even with Sinn Fein.

A pro-party wing has emerged following the UUP row

Mr Donaldson claimed he could do a better job than Mr Trimble of fixing the problems with the process.

The row in unionism may be about to be resolved one way or the other.

When Mr Trimble returns from holiday later this month, he will consult with party officers in a review of efforts to find a compromise over the three rebel MPs facing disciplinary action.

Without a resolution, and in the absence of any appetite to give the conciliation process more time, the three MPs will face a disciplinary committee.

This could set off a chain of events that either remove Mr Trimble from the leadership or split the party irrevocably.

No-one can say for certain what will happen.

Indeed, DUP deputy leader Peter Robinson, indicated to BBC Radio Ulster's Inside Politics programme that the outcome may yet be that Mr Trimble remains because Ulster Unionists cannot agree on an acceptable alternative.

In recent statements, Mr Robinson has favoured words like "doomed" rather than Mr Blair's "fragile" to describe the state of the political process.

Gerry Adams' US visit was overshadowed by events back home

Mr Robinson has accused nationalist Sinn Fein and the SDLP of failing to face the reality that their "unionist golden goose" - the Ulster Unionist Party - is cooked.

Mr Robinson argues that a new process must be set up as soon as assembly elections are announced.

While Sinn Fein and the SDLP are also demanding assembly elections, they remain wedded to the process.

Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams has been making his case for elections during a four-day visit to the US, but his meeting in New York with the US special envoy Richard Haass was overshadowed by events back home.

Chief Constable Hugh Orde made headlines by suggesting that missing Armagh republican Gareth O'Connor was probably kidnapped and killed by the IRA.

Republican Gareth O'Connor has been missing since May

While Sinn Fein has challenged Mr Orde to provide evidence, the chief constable's assessment is likely to haunt the process later this year.

Despite a relatively quiet summer, the O'Connor case could impact on the willingness of unionists to re-engage in the autumn.

The British, Irish and US Governments are busy trying to set up the Independent Monitoring Commission - whose remit includes examining paramilitary activity - in shadow form as soon as possible.

That could happen this week if the three governments can select all four commissioners in time.

Even if the commission is delayed until September, the Gareth O'Connor case will undoubtedly be drawn to its attention.

While Mr Blair says his preference is for an autumn election, few are betting on the poll.

Instead, a review of the workings of the Good Friday Agreement can be expected before the end of the year - with the DUP refusing to attend.