Persson fails to persuade

By Clare Murphy
BBC News Online

In the end, it was not even close.

The predicted 'Anna factor' did not materialise

Despite predictions that sympathy for the murdered foreign minister Anna Lindh - a passionate supporter of the euro - would bring out the Yes vote, Swedes put emotions aside to reject monetary union with Europe in Sunday's referendum.

Sweden's Prime Minister Goran Persson, who last week lost a trusted friend and colleague in Ms Lindh, must now try to establish why he failed to convince his people of the benefits of signing up to the single currency.

"People were not persuaded that it was in their self interest," says Dr Anders Mellbourn, director of the Swedish Institute for International Affairs.

"And people only accept reforms and vote for them when they can see the personal relevance of them."

Bad timing

Persuading a Eurosceptical nation of the advantages of closer integration was never going to be easy, and the task was complicated by deep divisions within Mr Persson's government.

Five of his ministers openly opposed joining, while some remarks made by Mr Persson himself during the campaign suggested he was not convinced of the urgency of the project.

Early on he suggested that another referendum could be held if Swedes rejected the euro in the first round - effectively inviting anyone undecided to vote No, since they could always change their minds later.

He also conceded that there were problems within the eurozone, notably with France and Germany's failure to stick to the rules laid out in the EU's Growth and Stability Pact, which sets the ceiling for budget deficit at 3% of GDP.

The relatively good situation economically in the country in contrast with most of Europe was a key factor Dr Anders Mellbourn Swedish Institute for International Affairs

In the aftermath of the vote, government ministers were quick to stress that the vote had come at a most unfortunate moment.

"Our greatest difficulty was the timing of the campaign," says Sweden's deputy finance minister Gunnar Lund. "The entire European Union was going through a very difficult phase - a very difficult phase - a recesssion."

Meanwhile, as the eurozone suffered, Sweden's economy continued to perform comparatively well - prompting many Swedes to question whether it was wise to hand over the reins to the European central bank.

"The relatively good situation economically in the country in contrast with most of Europe was a key factor in the outcome of the vote," says Dr Mellbourn.

Mr Persson's difficulties may also have been aggravated by the fact that No-campaigners stole some of his own clothes.

They emphasised Sweden's success in social policy, warning that the famous cradle-to-grave welfare system could be jeopardised by monetary union - a threat which it is thought to have been taken particularly seriously by rural voters.

Mr Persson's Yes camp meanwhile looked not to Sweden's past successes, but toward a future fully integrated into Europe.

"The Social Democrats have ruled with a certain appeal to the nostalgia for the past," says Carl Bildt, former prime minister and leader of the Swedish liberal-conservative Moderate Party.

"In this campaign rather suddenly they said that Sweden needed to be more modern, more European-oriented - and that was a rather too swift a change in message for some people."

No thanks

But Sweden's No vote also highlights a wider trend among European electorates at large - when the citizens of established EU countries are invited to vote on EU issues they tend to vote no.

No campaigners feared a loss of sovereignty

Suspicion of Brussels appears to haunt many EU citizens, who are wary of being ruled by a distant body which they see as having limited democratic credentials.

This perception is believed to be particularly acute in Sweden, whose political culture places great emphasis on openness and accountability.

"Sweden's geographical location, language and culture affects our attitude and means that many here do not feel close to Brussels," says Margot Wallstrom, Sweden's EU Commissioner.

"It's important for all EU leaders to work to be closer to their citizens. It's a challenge for all countries."

Mr Persson appeared acutely aware during the campaign that France and Germany's failure to respect the stability pact also threw up issues of transparency and fairness.

He vowed that he would fight to make sure the pact was functioning properly before leading Sweden into the eurozone in around 2006.

That battle has now been indefinitely postponed.