Mixed feelings over Burma sanctions

By Soe Win Than
BBC East Asia Today

There has been condemnation of Aung San Suu Kyi's detention

The decision by the US House of Representatives to impose trade sanctions on Burma has drawn mixed responses inside Burma.

Most Burmese agree that the military government, which seized power after a bloody crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in 1988 and which annulled the results of the 1990 elections, should go.

But people have also expressed concern about the impact which sanctions could have on the lives of ordinary people, who have already been devastated by the years of economic mismanagement by Burma's military rulers.

One female resident of Rangoon welcomed the move by the United States, saying that the sanctions were long overdue.

"I think the sanctions are necessary," she told the BBC's East Asia Today programme.

"But these sanctions will not be effective unless America can persuade other big countries, as well as our neighbours - and especially China - to co-operate in the movement.

"The generals can survive with the support of China and the benefit of border trade with neighbouring countries, while the people are living in great poverty," she said.

Trade ban

The bill passed in the US Congress will effectively ban imports from Burma to the United States.

Burma's exports to the US currently stand at around $400m per year, the majority of which are textiles and garments.

There are about 400 garment factories in Burma and many run as joint ventures with foreign companies.

They employ about 350,000 workers, mostly young women.

International pressure seems to have produced few results BBC Burma analyst Larry Jagan Do sanctions against Burma work?

Some Rangoon residents expressed concern that the ban would force the closure of garment factories and throw people out of work.

"I know a couple of families whose daughters work in these factories," one teacher in Rangoon told the BBC.

"They are worried that they would lose their jobs and end up with no source of income.

"America should look for other ways if they want to bring about change in Burma," he said.

"These sanctions mean the majority of people will suffer without even knowing that they are being sanctioned."

Welcome move

But opponents of the Burmese Government around the world welcome the US move.

The Washington-based Free Burma Coalition said the sanctions were "a step in the right direction".

There has been international condemnation of the regime's continued detention of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was arrested after an attack on her convoy in northern Burma on 30 May.

The tough words from Washington may have little impact as long as Beijing refuses to get tough as well

The Burmese generals have insisted she was detained for her own security and have rejected international calls for her release.

Even Burma's Asean neighbours - normally loathe to pass critical comment on each other's internal affairs - have expressed their dismay at the generals' action.

Japan, the largest aid donor to Burma, has suspended all assistance to the country.

The EU is also planning tougher measures against the Rangoon government and the British Government has asked travel companies to avoid visits to Burma.

Proponents of sanctions say authoritarian rulers only understand tough language.

But not everyone agrees.

"I think sanctions create a sense of solidarity within the military, and that means there are no splits that the international community are able to draw on and use as a way to move forward," Robert Templar of the International Crisis Group told the BBC's East Asia Today programme.

"I think they also help to reduce the economic and political space that is open to people in Burma," he said.

"And that means the military can consolidate their control."

Neighbourly support

Many analysts believe Burma's neighbours will play a crucial role in pressuring the junta into change.

The US bill specifically mentions China and Thailand as the two countries which need to stop giving help to the Rangoon government.

Thailand has joined the international clamour against the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi, but China has insisted that it is a purely Burmese domestic affair.

Beijing continues to provide Burma with much-needed economic assistance and acts as a diplomatic shield for Rangoon in international matters.

So the tough words from Washington may have little impact as long as Beijing refuses to get tough as well.