More than the summertime blues

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Blair is battling over trust

It is the end of the summer session in the mid-term of the government - it's not surprising there's a bit of static around and people are getting a bit hot under the collar.

With these words, the prime minister's official spokesman unconvincingly attempted to play down the growing sense of panic and drift hanging over Downing Street like the catastrophic thunder storms about to end the British summer.

He went on, unprompted, to deliver what sounded like one of Tony Blair's question time answers when thrown onto his back foot.

"The question is, are the fundamentals sound? And the answer is yes."

He then listed all the good news - and it is good news - on inflation, unemployment, economic stability and so on.

Trouble is, these pieces of good news are old news while most of the new news for the government - on everything from public services and Iraq through to foundation hospitals, jury trials, student fees and even hunting - is bad.

Flat panic

It is no wonder ministers are desperately awaiting the long summer holiday when, if things go to plan, it will be a case of no news is good news.

And what the prime minister must be hoping is that, when he flies off for his eight day, around-the-world-the-wrong-way tour on Thursday he will leave behind a government that has moved back onto the offensive and can safely be left to its own devices.

But there is little sign of that at the moment. Indeed, there are dark rumours circulating in Westminster that, to put it bluntly, Tony Blair is in a flat panic.

Duncan Smith has his tail up

He has allegedly been holding crisis talks with his inner circle aimed at finding a way through the darkness.

And, temporarily at least, he has stopped ministers giving their weekly, on camera briefings to the press.

He, his ministers or his whips are giving pep talks to the troops, either as a group or individually, on an almost daily basis, warning that their rebellious habits threaten the election of a Tory government. Iain Duncan Smith must love that one.

And, of course, there are continuing attempts to move away from the deeply dangerous row over why the prime minister took Britain to war on Iraq.

Sleepless nights

But the problems refuse to go away and it appears highly unlikely they will.

Iraq and weapons of mass destruction, rebellions over policies on the NHS, student fees, jury trials and the like and the ever-present tensions between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair - not to mention new stresses between Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and Downing Street - simply will not evaporate over night.

How can Tony Blair enter a third general election campaign on any kind of radical, reforming programme if voters simply do not trust his pledges?

They are here to stay and may only get worse. A drubbing in the looming European elections next May might have the desired effect of terrifying the rebels into submission - but even that may not work.

All that is bad enough and reason enough in itself to be giving the prime minister sleepless nights.

But what has added the extra infusion to produce panic is the issue of trust.

If the polls are to be believed, Iain Duncan Smith's "nobody believes a word they say" line is sticking - largely thanks to the government's own history of spin and apparent inability to kick the habit.

Ability to deliver

Internal polling for the party is even worse, suggesting that it is becoming THE big swing issue for voters, specifically those wavering middle England voters who put Labour in power.

The short term damage to the government - not to mention the wider political process - is obvious and dangerous.

But it is the long-term effects that are spooking the government.

How can Tony Blair enter a third general election campaign on any kind of radical, reforming programme if voters simply do not trust his pledges?

The prime minister, one of the instigators of the hugely-successful "sleaze" campaign against the last Tory government, knows how potent these attacks can be.