Will a bigger EU work?

By Quentin Peel
International Affairs Editor of the Financial Times

Giscard d'Estaing's draft constitution aims to glue the EU together

Membership of the European Union is set to swell from the current 15 members states to 25 next year. But can an expanded EU really work?

The Convention on the Future of Europe has laboured for almost 17 months, and produced a draft constitutional treaty for the European Union.

It will be presented to the EU's Italian presidency in Rome on Friday, 18 July, 2003.

The constitution is supposed to ensure that the EU will still be able to function effectively - and democratically - when it expands from 15 to 25 member states next year.

It is supposed to provide the glue that will hold a disparate group of countries together, in spite of huge differences in prosperity, culture and history, let alone language.

The challenge facing the EU is about power - how it will be shared between nation states and central institutions, and how it will be made answerable to ordinary electors.

The democratic underpinning is a critical factor.

Twin chambers

Euro-sceptics such as Jens-Peter Bonde, a veteran Danish member of the European Parliament, believe it could still take 100 years for any real European democracy to emerge.

"It works at the national level. It does not work at the European level," he says.

But the Convention, a 105-strong assembly of politicians, government ministers, bureaucrats and European commissioners, has attempted to strengthen the powers of both national parliaments and the European parliament.

The European parliament will get many more powers of 'co-decision' over new laws

John Bruton, the former Irish prime minister, thinks new powers for national parliaments could be a big step towards creating a greater "democratic consciousness" in the EU.

They will be given the right to raise a "yellow card" - like a football referee - if they think any new piece of legislation proposed by the European Commission is an unwarranted intrusion on national powers.

"The exercise of that power... will require an intense scrutiny by all 25 national parliaments of each EU proposal," he says. "That's going to create a much more informed national debate on European issues."

At the same time, the European parliament and the Council of Ministers - where the 25 governments meet - are being strengthened and made more democratic.

The parliament will get many more powers of "co-decision" over new laws, and over the EU budget. It will have a say on internal justice and immigration, on the farm budget, and on regional subsidies - all for the first time.

The Council of Ministers, until now a secretive body given to interminable negotiations behind closed doors, will be required to pass legislation in public. In effect, the parliament and the council will become twin legislative chambers of the new EU.

Internal security

But critics say that the EU will still not be relevant to voters unless it can deliver policies on issues that matter. That means, ultimately, using more majority voting, rather than insisting on unanimous decision-making.

Anne Van Lancker, a Flemish Socialist who was one of the most outspoken representatives of the European parliament on the Convention, says there is still not enough majority voting on questions such as unemployment, poverty and public health.

Javier Solana worries about European splits over Iraq

The most important new area that has been brought right into the EU system, however, is internal security - border policing, immigration, fighting drugs and cross-border crime.

And, in spite of the deep division between the EU governments over Iraq, the field of external security and foreign policy has been reinforced.

Danuta Huebner, Poland's Minister for Europe, thinks closer co-operation on both internal and external security is essential. "If we don't go deeper into co-operation on those issues, we will probably fail," she says. But the creation of a new European Minister for Foreign Affairs will be a big improvement.

On the other hand, she admits that the new members are keen to preserve their sovereignty in areas such as economic and fiscal policy, in order to keep their competitiveness. On that, they have much sympathy with Britain.

Javier Solana, the current EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, is worried at the signs of division between "old" and "new" member states over Iraq, and reliance on the US for security.

But he is convinced that over time, the new members will become part of the EU family, and their fear of threats from the East - the former Soviet Union - will diminish.

Reinforced co-operation

But will the glue hold, or will the older member states be tempted to press ahead in smaller groups towards closer co-operation?

Etienne Davignon, a former vice-president of the Commission, says it may happen if decision-making proves too difficult - in spite of the new constitution. The key will be whether such "reinforced co-operation" takes place inside or outside the EU institutions.

So the jury is out, and the new draft constitution has yet to be tested. It will mean significantly closer integration in many areas, and more majority voting.

In the UK that may look like federalism. But if a wider EU is going to work, then closer integration is inevitable. The constitution is another big step in that direction.

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Quentin Peel will present Analysis: Europe's Vision Thing to be broadcast on BBC Radio Four on Thursday, 17 July, 2003 at 2030 BST

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