Dangers haunt Blair's Washington trip

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

Shadow hangs over Blair-Bush meeting

Tony Blair flies to Washington today as storm clouds continue to gather over both his and George Bush's leadership in the wake of the war on Iraq.

And, for the first time since 11 September, there are real strains showing between the two men.

The claims and counter-claims between the countries' intelligence services over Saddam Hussein's nuclear weapons plans have cast a significant shadow over the visit.

The prime minister is under intense pressure to demand from the president the return of UK prisoners in Guantanamo Bay camp.

And both men are suffering public backlashes against the reasons for the war.

HAVE YOUR SAY This is the best opportunity Mr Blair will ever have to re-assert his stature as Prime Minister Chris Westhead, Blackpool, UK Click here to read more of your comments

The issue of prisoners is bound to be raised by the prime minister. But there are no signs the president is ready to give in - unless this is a piece of carefully-constructed spin designed to see Mr Blair emerging with a "surprise" deal.

Jury out

When this trip was first proposed, it was planned as a genuinely historic occasion, with the British prime minister being honoured with a Congressional gold medal.

He will also address both Houses, joining Margaret Thatcher, Winston Churchill and Clement Atlee as the only Brit leaders to receive the honour.

He was to receive a hero's welcome as President Bush's staunchest and most constant ally since the attack on the twin towers.

It all looks very different now, however.

The award will not now be made during the current trip amid fears such a triumphalist occasion would play extremely badly in Britain where concerns over the war are reaching a new high.

He may be a hero in the US but, as the Commons foreign affairs committee found, the jury is still out at home.

And the re-emergence of the row over whether or not Saddam was trying to buy uranium from Niger has clearly embarrassed both sides.

The CIA have confessed it was their error that led to President Bush using the claim in his state of the union speech.

Bemuse and baffle

It was, they insist, based on dodgy UK information which didn't come up to the standard they apply to their own intelligence.

Still, they did not have the reference removed from the president's address.

For its part, the UK has insisted the intelligence was correct and claims to have separate corroborative information from a third country which refused to allow it to be passed to the US.

No evidence of a nuclear programme

This will most likely only bemuse and baffle voters in Britain who have constantly been reassured about the co-operation between the two countries in the fight against terrorism.

It will also lead to some uncomfortable moments when the prime minister and the president meet.

Having said all that it is a pretty safe bet it is an issue they will not want to dwell on, preferring yet again to underline their close relationship and continuing certainty they did the right thing.

In his speech to Congress, the prime minister is expected to once again stress the need for Europe and the US to work together as partners, not competitors.

Extreme sensitivity

The world is always a more secure and prosperous place when they do, he will say.

He will insist that the two blocks share values which are not simply Western, but universal.

And he will talk of the need to work together to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan.

He will stress the need for peace in the Middle East as the big prize ahead and say that terrorism cannot be defeated without it.

But his speech is certain to be overshadowed by the issue of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay and Hans Blix latest attacks on the prime minister's "mistake" by claiming Saddam could deploy WMD in 45 minutes.

It is also pretty certain that this latest row will feed into the growing public concerns over the case Tony Blair and George Bush made against Saddam before the war was launched.

There is also now a real danger that, far from underpinning the prime minister's image as a big international player, it will be seen as a reinforcement of his much-criticised relationship with the president.

And any hint of triumphalism, even celebration, is likely to go down extremely poorly in the UK, particularly on Labour's backbenches.

The prime minister will have to play this trip to Washington with extreme sensitivity.