Predicting the Great Storm

By Helen Briggs
BBC News Online science reporter

British TV weatherman Michael Fish came in for heavy criticism for his forecast on 15 October 1987 in which he said there would be no hurricane that night.

It was the eve of the Great Storm which felled millions of trees and took out electricity supplies across much of south east England.

Damage from severe storms costs Europe more than 1 bn euros a year

Thanks to a new forecasting system developed at the University of Reading, the fuss that followed this famous forecast is less likely to happen again.

A model to better predict severe storms is among the exhibits displayed at this year's Royal Society Summer Science Exhibition in London.

A team led by Keith Browning analysed the Great Storm of October 1987 and other more recent European cyclones.

They used satellite images and surface weather observations to piece together events.

Ice, Mars, fuel

They found that the strongest winds are associated with a cloud feature, hooked like a scorpion's tail, known as a Sting Jet.

A model of Beagle 2 is on display

The work should lead to better predictions from satellite images of where the worst winds are likely to strike, hopefully reducing damage and loss of life.

"There is the prospect of improving forecasts to longer periods ahead," says Professor Browning.

"There's a long way to go - these are small-scale phenomena that are different in large-scale models."

The Summer Science Exhibition is taking place from 1 to 3 July at the Royal Society, 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, London, SW1Y 5AG.

Among the science exhibits on display are:

• a working replica of the instruments on Beagle 2, the British-built space craft that is on its way to Mars
• a small-scale model of Cryosat, a European satellite set for launch in 2004 that will monitor the ice shelves of Antarctica
• details of an electronic nose that can sniff out lung cancer
• the technology behind the first British passenger buses to run on fuel cells that produce zero emissions.