Blair's new hunting dilemma

By Nick Assinder BBC News Online political correspondent

A hunt ban was promised in election manifesto

If one issue has come to symbolise all that is good and bad about New Labour it is probably fox hunting.

A ban on the blood sport was promised in labour's 1997 election manifesto and was seen as a radical, reforming and "modernising" move.

But it quickly became clear that it was also a hugely troublesome issue and one which the government clearly wished it had never hooked itself on in the first place.

The pro-hunting lobby warned of rural mayhem as a result of a ban and jeered that Labour's middle class townies had no idea what they were talking about.

Labour traditionalists saw it as a matter of principle and cruelty, probably with a bit of the old class war thrown in for good measure, and pressed the government to follow through with its promise.

But Tony Blair, eager not to upset the countryside lobby, ensured a backbencher's bill to ban hunting was blown out of the water. And the whole issue went onto the back burner.

Distraction and spin

But then the prime minister found himself going through a rough time in 1999, losing both the local and European elections amid claims of Old Labour disillusion.

One thing is certainly clear, Tony Blair is in far more trouble now than he was in 1999 and this is one fight he can do without.

He needed to re-engage with core Labour voters - that rings a bell - so, out of the blue and to the surprise of the Home Office which was in charge of the issue, he announced he would ban the practice before the next election.

It was seen by opponents as a classic piece of New Labour distraction and spin.

Cynics believe the prime minister had no such intention and events certainly appeared to bear that out as - to cut a very long story short - it was swiftly abandoned again.

Another election and more promises came and went. There were more consultations - for which read delays - and finally a classic fudge was drawn up by hapless minister Alun Michael.

It satisfied no one and it now looks like the government may simply decide it is no longer worth a fight.

More trouble

Old Labourites led by Tony Banks, supported by veteran backbenchers including Gerald Kaufman, are pledging to tear up the third way compromise and insist on a complete ban.

And they are reminding the government of its promise that it would accept such a verdict and use the Parliament Act to push it through the Lords.

However, if the rebels get their way and amend the bill it will have to go back to square one and pass through all its parliamentary stages again - possibly delaying it indefinitely.

They could be cutting off their noses to spite their faces. An outcome which may not dismay the government.

One thing is certainly clear, Tony Blair is in far more trouble now than he was in 1999 and this is one fight he can do without.

Immediately after the war on Iraq the prime minister appeared strengthened and, as a result, determined not to allow his rebels to get their way.

Things are different now, however. Does he really want to further infuriate his backbench critics and allow yet more allegations that he is reneging on an election promise?

To allow a full ban now would certainly cause problems with the Lords and the Countryside Alliance.

But maybe this time the easiest and most beneficial way out for the prime minister would be to let the Commons, and Old Labour, have its way.