Complacency shattered in Iraq

By Paul Reynolds
BBC News Online world affairs correspondent

The deaths of six British soldiers in Iraq have shattered the complacency which had grown up around the British operation in the south of the country.

UK troops have discarded protective gear

Commentators had favourably compared the British approach - no helmets, on the streets, with the people - to the Americans stuck in their armoured vehicles and in full flak jackets.

That comfortable image may now be at an end.

The shock reminds one of the moment in March 1971 when three young Scottish soldiers were lured to a party in Belfast and then shot dead by the IRA.

They were not the first soldiers to die in the Troubles. Gunner Robert Curtis had been shot dead a month before.

But their deaths marked the moment when it was clear that what had started as peacekeeping operation in Northern Ireland would become a lengthy guerrilla war.

This went on for nearly 30 years and for some people it is not over yet.

Another lesson to be learned from Northern Ireland is how quickly goodwill can be lost. One or two bad incidents can alienate the population.

Tactics used by the British army in their dealings with civilians have to be carefully calibrated in case they are counter-productive.

Reinforcements?

We do not know if the six deaths in Iraq (which follow even more American casualties) signal that there is real fighting ahead.

Certainly more such incidents must now be expected.

But whether these will become an effective campaign is less certain. Nor is it known if this means the end of good relations with the local people. Perhaps they were not as good as was thought.

Before panic sets in, there must be a pattern of attacks. And much can be done to counter these.

Some will want to send in more troops. The government is already considering this. Others will want to pull them out.

There will be an effort to get the international troops in which have been promised for weeks.

Need to rebuild

The incidents certainly reinforce the need for the reconstruction effort to go ahead more speedily.

Post-war reconstruction has been slow

Indeed, there could be a race between putting Iraq back together again and allowing the forces of opposition to gain some momentum.

People usually say that security should come first.

But reconstruction cannot wait and might itself lead to security.

The initial steps towards creating a stable Iraq have been painfully slow.

Even the British representative in Iraq, John Sawers, admitted this when he was in London recently.

For the UK Government, there is now the risk to British troops at a moment when the whole war is still under close questioning and criticism.

If troops get bogged down, they might find it harder to get out than they did to go in.

Four years has been mentioned as the length of an occupation.

It seems an awfully long time.

Japanese model

And yet, General Douglas MacArthur was overlord in Japan for six years, from 1945 to 1951.

That solution - putting an active military man in charge - was rejected by Washington for Iraq, although it was considered.

But the civilian alternative, Paul Bremer, a former diplomat who became an expert in counter-terrorism, has not stamped his authority on the place as MacArthur did in Japan.

MacArthur's methods

General MacArthur rewrote the Japanese constitution almost single-handedly.

He broke up the industrial cartels and allowed civilian industry to grow.

He lowered taxes. He allowed the emperor to stay on, as a man not a god. He fostered democracy.

In short, he provided leadership and direction. It worked.

But there was one major difference with Iraq and the same applied to Germany.

Both had surrendered. Iraq did not. And some Iraqis do not intend to.