Iraqi Kurds face uncertain future

By Pam O'Toole BBC regional analyst

Like other Iraqi opposition groups, Iraq's Kurds are eyeing the future with a mixture of optimism and apprehension.

The PUK swooped on Kirkuk when the Iraqi army crumbled

Optimism, because the hated Saddam Hussein, who persecuted and even gassed their people, has gone.

Apprehension, because it is not yet clear who, or what, will replace him.

For the past decade Iraqi Kurds have experienced what some regard as a golden age.

Since the last Gulf War, around four million have lived in their own autonomous area, protected from the Iraqi president by Western air patrols.

Their standard of living was better than in the south.

Their unique situation gave their two main leaders - Jalal Talabani of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and Massoud Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) - added legitimacy on the world stage.

Misgivings

Now the air patrols and Saddam Hussein have gone.

Having helped the Americans dislodge his regime, the Kurds will have to deal with whoever takes over in Baghdad.

(The Kurds) made it clear that they really wanted to have guarantees about their future in Iraq - but ultimately those guarantees have not been given

Gareth Stansfield
Exeter University

"The Kurds are in an unfortunate position," Gareth Stansfield of Exeter University says.

"There's no way they could have said no to the Americans, though they made it clear that they really wanted to have guarantees about their future in Iraq - but ultimately those guarantees have not been given."

From being in a unique geopolitical position, the Kurds are now only one among many opposition factions jostling for a place in the new Iraqi order.

What they want is a form of federal democracy which will protect much of the autonomy they currently have, along with a real share in central government - something the Kurds have been denied in the past.

As Barham Saleh, a senior official in the Kurds' regional government, put it: " We want a devolved power structure and significant self-government for the regions.

"We want participation for the regions in the federal government in Baghdad, on a basis of equality and fair representation."

Friendly fire

Like everyone else in the Iraqi opposition, the Kurds are manoeuvring to push through their own political agenda.

They have had some success - federalism has been endorsed by three successive Iraqi opposition conferences, including one in southern Iraq last week.

Kurds welcome the fall of Saddam Hussein...

But when it comes down to details, they may have more of a fight on their hands. Some other opposition groups are less enthusiastic about federalism, or have different ideas about how it might work.

For the time being, the Kurds are being cautious. They have toed the line where Washington is concerned, perhaps hoping this will increase their political leverage later.

Apart from an initial pre-emptive rush into the politically sensitive northern city of Kirkuk ahead of US forces, their peshmerga militia has largely kept its promise to work under US command.

When US friendly fire hit a Kurdish convoy, killing several people and injuring the brother of the KDP leader, criticism was muted.

"This is a war situation and these things can happen," said KDP foreign affairs spokesman Hoshyar Zebari.

Cracks

The Kurds were clearly delighted at the fall of Kirkuk and Mosul, strategic cities with large Kurdish populations.

... but they want to continue to run their northern homeland

However, there are reports of brewing tensions in these cities, between Kurds and ethnic Turkmen, or Kurds and Arabs.

In Kirkuk, there have been reports of other political parties emerging who, in future, could pose a challenge to the KDP and PUK.

As for the two main parties themselves, relations have improved dramatically since the mid 1990s, when simmering rivalries between them erupted into war.

But there are signs of small cracks appearing in their recent impressive show of unity; Mr Barzani openly criticised the PUK for its premature stampede into Kirkuk.