Road Map faces challenges

Where is that much talked about road map for peace in the Middle East?

Newsnight's Tim Samuels had this report.

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TIM SAMUELS:
The road to Middle East peace has proved elusive but if there is one thing which has tended to propel the parties in that direction it is the fallout of a major regional war.

Defeat in 1973 brought Egypt to the negotiating table culminating in a peace deal with Israel.

From the aftermath of the first Gulf war sprang the Oslo agreement and with it the real hope that Arafat could deliver peace.

COLIN POWELL:
We have a real chance to get some progress and part of that progress and part of the road map will be to deal with the issue of settlements.

SAMUELS:
The talk today was again about settlements and security.

Tony Blair may have prodded the US along but it seems the American administration is committed to re-engaging with the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Now Saddam has fallen, its big idea to achieve this, the road map.

It is not a panacea to resolve all the issues of the Middle Eastern conflict, rather it is about getting movement.

Moving the Palestinians towards a provisional state, whilst addressing Israeli security fears along the way.

Under the smoothest of journeys, assuming no major breakdowns en route, the map envisages separate Palestinian and Israeli states in just three years' time.

But getting the map on the road is itself proving arduous.

President Bush had promised to release the map when the new Palestinian Prime Minister was in place.

It is now scheduled for when he has named his new cabinet and herein lies the current obstacle.

Sidelined by the US and Israel, Yasser Arafat doesn't seem to be giving the new Prime Minister an easy ride as he tries to appoint his cabinet.

There is talk of a power struggle. Reports that Arafat threw the list of ministers to the floor.

With no cabinet in place, the road map remains stalled.

American ire is aimed at Arafat.

DANIELLE PLETKA:
The fact that he is unable to relinquish power to somebody who has been a trusted aide of his for decades, Abu Mazen, really is a sign of just how despotic his leadership has become.

He is viewed as an unrelenting despot.

SAMUELS:
To compound this perception of Arafat as the obstacle, Ariel Sharon has seized the opportunity.

This week saying he was willing to make painful concessions for peace, including handing back settlements.

DAVID HOROWITZ:
There is a split in Israel as to what Sharon's intentions are but the key point is Sharon is not being tested yet because there isn't a widespread sense in Israel that the Palestinians have changed course.

SAMUELS:
The crux of the internal Palestinian struggle is the make-up of the new Palestinian cabinet.

Abu Mazen is trying to sideline the old Araftat loyalists, including the interior Minister, Hani al Hassan and Saeb Erekat, local government minister. Perhaps the most critical seat at the cabinet will go to Mohammed DarLynn.

ABU ZAYYAD:
He made it clear all the time that he is against violence and against turning this Intifada from a peaceful Intifada to an armed Intifada.

He gave interviews and make statements all the time.

Maybe this is the best qualification for him to take the lead at this stage and try to do what he believes.

HOROWITZ:
The speed with which Saddam fell was shocking to many Palestinians.

I think there has been wide public support for Saddam among Palestinians. He fostered such support.

Iraq's capitulation has left the Palestinians more vulnerable. It may strengthen America's hand in forcing Israel to make those painful concessions.

If the shift can be harnessed, as they were after the last Gulf War, the peace process may stand a chance of hitting the road again if the internal squabbling can be resolved.

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