Berlusconi walks tightrope of war

Berlusconi walks tightrope of war

By David Willey BBC Rome correspondent

Berlusconi has kept his head down since the war started

Italian Prime Minister Sylvio Berlusconi has had to tread a careful path, confronted by strong opposition to the war in Iraq - not only among the general public but also in the Vatican.

"We are not a belligerent nation," Mr Berlusconi told the Italian parliament earlier this month.

He was frequently interrupted by the left-wing opposition - passionately opposed to participation in the war.

If you can mix metaphors and sit on a fence and ride a tiger at the same time - Mr Berlusconi can do it

James Walston
International relations teacher

In the same breath, Mr Berlusconi announced that Italy would be offering logistical support to the Americans, including the use of Nato bases and overflying rights.

Berlusconi went on immediately to qualify his support for the Americans. There would be no attacks originating from Italian territory, he said.

And yet American airborne troops flew directly from their base at Vicenze in northern Italy to northern Iraq. This was not an attack, the government explained, but Italian public opinion remains sceptical.

'Non-committal'

Cars owned by American servicemen stationed in Italy were set on fire.

James Walston, who teaches international relations in Rome, believes Mr Berlusconi, on past performance, can put on a nimble balancing act.

Many Italians are strongly anti-war

"He's managed not to commit himself, either way. He has said everything, and the opposite of everything, in a soft enough way, not to be identified too carefully with one side or the other," he said.

"Since the war has started, and even before, he's kept his head very low. He might be seen to be riding a tiger in the way that Blair or Aznar are doing - but because of his non-committance he has managed to calm that down, and he has been sitting on the fence.

"And if you can mix metaphors and sit on a fence and ride a tiger at the same time - Mr Berlusconi can do it."

'Negative trends'

In contrast to Tony Blair, who has increased his popularity since the war started, there is little cheer for Mr Berlusconi in this week's opinion polls.

He is a man of compromise

Lucio Caracciolo
Leading journalist

Only 35% of Italians are behind him.

Lucio Caracciolo is the editor of a leading political periodical called Limes:

"We can see quite negative trends not only for Mr Berlusconi himself but his party and for the coalition. But I don't think at the end of the day they will bring big damage to the coalition Mr Berlusconi is leading.

"He is a man of compromise, but deep down he is quite a kind of christian democrat.

"Before going into politics Berlusconi asked famous Italian pollsters: 'If I were the leader of the left, would I be more popular than if I were the leader of the right?'

"The polls indicated that he would be more popular as a leader of the right - and so he chose the right."

Tourism hit

Mr Berlusconi, a committed Christian, also has to take into account the anti-war pressure put on the country's overwhelmingly Catholic electorate by the Pope.

The aged Pope belongs to a generation that remembers only too vividly the wars of the 20th century. He warns of war's dire consequences, as well as its lack of moral justification.

Mr Berlusconi will get a concrete indication of the political cost of the war against Iraq in local elections due in May.

In the meantime he has to consider carefully the war's likely economic costs. Tourism, one of Italy's major industries, has already been badly hit.

And Mr Berlusconi's problems may only increase as he prepares to take over the rotating presidency of the EU next July.