Analysis: Turkey's border tensions

Analysis: Turkey's border tensions

By Jonny Dymond BBC correspondent in Cizre, south-east Turkey

Beyond this checkpoint lies a closed military zone

The fields along the sides of the road to Silopi, the last Turkish town before the border with Iraq, are lush, almost iridescent green, rich with spring rain. Mountains rise in the distance, their peaks gleaming with snow.

Sheep graze along the side of the road, guided by shepherds in a combination of modern and peasant dress. In more peaceful times, the road rumbles with trucks, mostly tankers busting the sanctions regime with smuggled oil.

But now no-one but the locals and the military can go beyond a checkpoint just a few hundred metres outside Silopi. South of the checkpoint lies a closed military zone, where the Turkish military has built up its forces over the last few weeks.

Behind the checkpoint is one of the enigmas of the Iraq war. Well-sourced reports late on Friday night told of the movement of between 1000 and 1500 lightly armed troops across the border into northern Iraq.

A source with close links to the military in the area told the BBC some hours beforehand that troops were preparing to cross. The source said that troops had moved out of their temporary positions and moved onto the border itself.

Mixed messages

On Saturday, the Turkish Government and military refuted the reports. The Turkish general staff said no troops had crossed the border. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul was also insistent that the Turkish military had not entered Iraq.

But inside and outside Turkey, evidence points to the contrary. The BBC has been told categorically that the incursion did occur. UK Defence Minister Geoff Hoon referred to a policing action by Turkish troops that he was, he said, not overly concerned about at this stage.

And the Commander of US Forces, General Tommy Franks, told a news conference at the Pentagon that the US had observed Turkish troops moving in and out of Turkey.

That an incursion has taken place should not be too surprising. Over the last few weeks and months, Turkey has made it clear that it would put troops into Iraq.

Less than 24 hours before he denied that troops had crossed the border, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul declared that Turkish troops would go into northern Iraq.

Turkey is concerned that it will end up with a humanitarian crisis on the scale of 12 years ago after the last Gulf War. About half a million people fled Iraq into Turkey during hostilities.

And Turkey is worried that the collapse of Iraq's central authority could open the way to the creation of an autonomous Kurdish state in northern Iraq, that something might inflame separatist sentiment in Turkey's enormous Kurdish population.

So why the denials? The reaction to the incursion provides the answer. The US had already made clear its disapproval of Turkey's proposed action. On Saturday, Germany voiced its displeasure, threatening to withdraw its crews from Nato surveillance planes in Turkey.

Final twist

Belgium joined in on Sunday, threatening not just to withdraw its Nato contribution, but also to block Turkey's EU membership application.

There are fears that Turkish troops could clash with Iraqi Kurds

There is one more twist to the enigma, and it may provide hope for a peaceful resolution of the situation.

On Saturday, a representative of the KDP, one of the Kurdish groups which administers part of northern Iraq, said that he did not believe Turkish troops had crossed the border.

The KDP's leader Massoud Barzani, has been the most aggressive in threats towards any Turkish troops coming into Iraq - he said that northern Iraq would be a graveyard for them.

But if the KDP is now trying to play down any incursion, it looks like an attempt at accommodation.

Given the evidence, there is little doubt that Turkish troops did cross the border, reinforcing those already within northern Iraq.

But with both Turkey and the KDP trying to play down the move, there seems a chance that the incursion may not spark a regional confrontation.